All Aboard the E.J. Manuel Bandwagon- A Stunning Player Comparison

Photo Rights to Sports Illustrated

Readers of my blog and NFL Draft coverage know I have a pretty high opinion of Florida St. quarterback E.J. Manuel.  Despite other draft pundits having players like Matt Barkley, Tyler Wilson, Mike Glennon, and even Ryan Nassib (or some combination of the 4) ahead of him on their boards, Manuel has been right behind West Virginia QB Geno Smith for me the whole time.  I’ve got Manuel right on the border of being a late first/early second round draft prospect, and I think he’s being very undervalued by other draftniks.

Why did I feel compelled to write an article on Manuel?  I don’t have him ranked as high as Geno Smith, and this QB class is being ripped apart by draft analysts everywhere.  But as I poured over more game film of Manuel a player comparison came to my mind, and after some basic research, the results are eerily similar.  Here’s a one-eye-blind quiz for you.

Player 1’s Senior College Season Statistics:  359 pass attempts, 233 completions, 64.9%, 3,022 yards, 8.4 yards per attempt, 21 Touchdowns, 8 Interceptions, 150.5 QB Rating

E.J. Manuel’s Senior College Season Statistics: 387 pass attempts, 263 completions, 68.0%, 3,397 yards, 8.8 yards per attempt, 23 Touchdowns, 10 Interceptions, 156.1 QB Rating

Close, right?  Let’s take a look at how they measured up at the NFL Scouting Combine.

Player 1: 6’5”, 233lbs, 4.53 40-yard dash, 1.62 split (first 10 yards), 4.18 shuttle, 6.85 3-cone, 32.5” vertical leap, 9’7” broad jump

E.J. Manuel: 6’5”, 237lbs, 4.65 40-yard-dash, 1.63 split, 4.21 shuttle, 7.08 3-cone, 34” vertical leap, 9’10” broad jump

So, same exact player, right?  Any idea who it could be?  I’ll give you a few seconds to think…

…(I hope no one likes this article, then I’m going to have to do it for a lot more players)…

…last line for you to think…

…alright, you’re time’s up.  And if all you did was scroll down to this, you have no sense of adventure.  

Anyways, Player 1 is this guy:

Photo Rights to CBS Sports

Yup.  Colin Kaepernick.  The dude who took the NFL by storm and almost won a Super Bowl exactly one month ago.  Let’s look at the tape, shall we?

This was Manuel's best game of the season, and while Clemson has a crappy defense, this was THE GAME for the ACC this year.  The lights were on bright and Manuel was fantastic.  His bootleg runs were great, he completed short passes on third downs to keep drives alive, and he showed velocity and accuracy by squeezing the ball into a couple of tight windows.

Kaepernick's college tape shows a strong armed QB in a pistol offense that allowed him to showcase his speed.  He throws on the run well, as does Manuel, and shows no fear of taking shots down the field.  He runs well yet avoids getting blown up by sliding, ducking out of bounds, etc.  It's easy to see the athletic tools that have made him a game changer at the next level.

Here's Manuel in the bowl game against Northern Illinois.  Again, not a great D, but who did Kaepernick face at Nevada?  Same stuff.  Manuel played solid in this game and was accurate on almost every throw.  He also threw some deeper balls and looked like an NFL QB out there.

So let’s review.  E.J. Manuel looks just like Colin Kaepernick statistically and physically, and they look very similar on the tape too.  While Kaepernick has a little more top end speed, they both get out of the pocket and down the field in similar time (see their 10-yard splits) and know how to avoid hits.  They’ve both got cannons for arms and good but not great accuracy.  And while Kaepernick is a little better on vertical and seam throws down the field, Manuel has spent 4 years in a west-coast offense and has a better grasp on the short and intermediate throws.   And for anyone who wants to cite Kaepernick’s college rushing totals as evidence that he is clearly superior, I’d point back to the times they posted at the combine and say Manuel will be 90% as effective with his legs as Kaepernick at the next level.  The difference came from Kaepernick running the pistol and Manuel being a pocket passer in a west coast scheme.  And in important games like the Clemson one above, FSU let Manuel run free and make plays (11 carries for 102 yards against the Tigers).  I’m not saying E.J. Manuel will be starting in the Super Bowl in 2015.  I’m just saying it’s time to get on the bandwagon.  Like Kaepernick, he has some flaws and is too raw to be counted on right away in the NFL.  But he also has the same natural gifts that made Alex Smith expendable in San Francisco this past season.  For those who needed evidence to support my assertions that Manuel has the chance to be special, look no further.  He’s got a chance to be the next Colin Kaepernick.