Wednesday, April 3, 2013

2013 NFL Mock Draft 3.1

1. Kansas City Chiefs- Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M- This draft doesn’t have a stand-out top prospect, so the Chiefs are a little more unpredictable than most teams with the #1 pick.  The team franchised Brandon albert, but that doesn’t take a tackle out of play (after all, it’s only a one year deal).  A trade is also a possibility of a team decides to move up to make sure they get Geno Smith (and yes, Buffalo, you’re going to have to move up to get him).  Shariff Floyd is also a possibility if the chiefs go defense.

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2. Jacksonville Jaguars- Shariff Floyd, DT, Florida- Floyd continues his ascension of draft boards league-wide after a solid combine.  I thought about penciling in Dee Milliner here, but I think Gus Bradley will feel he can develop bigger, raw corners in later rounds like he did in Seattle.  The Jags need a lot of pass rushing help and I think Floyd (right) is rated higher than any of the DE/OLB types on their board.



3. Oakland Raiders- Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah- The Raiders have the worst roster in the NFL, and their defensive line is in shambles.  Dee Milliner or Dion Jordan could get looks here, but I think DT is a more pressing need, and Lotulelei is the top player available at this point.  His heart issues are all cleared up.

4. Philadelphia Eagles- Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma- I remember back in 2010 I had Russell Okung as the top left tackle prospect, as many other people did.  But at #4 the Redskins picked Trent Williams over Okung because the former had quicker feet and was a perfect fit in their zone blocking scheme.  History could repeat itself in 2013 with another Sooner.  Lane Johnson isn’t rated higher than Eric Fisher on most boards (he is on mine) but he is the fastest tackle in years and seems perfect for chip Kelly’s offense.

5. Detroit Lions- Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama- The Lions will look at a left tackle here for sure, but Milliner would also fill a huge need and the Lions have been smitten with him throughout the draft process.  I think they take Milliner and hope Riley Reiff cuts it at left tackle.

6. Cleveland Browns- Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia- It seems like every team in the Top 9 has been linked to Geno Smith at some point but Detroit, but Cleveland isn’t considered one of the favorites for the draft’s top signal caller.  I know they’ve said they’ll give Brandon Weeden another chance, but he’s 29 and not a starting caliber QB in the league.  What’s more, this new regime didn’t draft him, so they don’t owe him anything.  They got their pass rusher in Paul Kruger as a free agent, and I think if Smith is on the board they have to pull the trigger.

7. Arizona Cardinals- Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan- The Cardinals are delighted to have Fisher available at 7 to help shore up their left tackle spot.  He has tremendous value outside of the Top 5.

8. Buffalo Bills- Dion Jordan, OLB, Oregon- The Bills have needs at several place, notably at Quarterback, but Geno Smith isn’t available here in this mock.  They could reach for Alec Ogltree or Cordarrelle Patterson, or they could take Jordan (below) as a potential Von Miller type for their defense.  Jordan could play OLB in their 4-3 and then be unleashed as a pass rusher on third downs.  A value pick over picking straight for need.
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9. New York Jets- Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU- the Jets need a pass rusher, and Ansah has value at the ninth spot.  He would likely stand up as an outside linebacker in their 3-4 scheme.

10. Tennessee Titans- Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama- The Titans finalize their offensive line overhaul by adding Warmack, the top interior line prospect in the draft.

11. San Diego Chargers- Jonathan Cooper, OG, UNC- The Chargers need to replace the departed Louis Vasquez at guard.  Cooper is among the best players available at this juncture and would help to stabilize the pocket for Phillip Rivers, as well as being versatile and a stout run blocker.

12. Miami Dolphins- Kenny Vaccaro, FS, Texas- The Dolphins have a pair of second rounders and the Browns have none, so I think we may see Miami move up to 6 if one of the 3 left tackles is there.  But this mock assumes no trades.  Vaccaro would be a reach here but as the top safety he’ll be pushed up the board a bit by teams that need him.  Miami has addressed a lot of other needs but safety remains a priority.

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13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida St.- Rhodes and Desmond Trufant are battling to be the second corner off the board, but Rhodes seems like a better fit for the Cover 2 scheme the Bucs employ.  The Buccaneers have a dire need at the cornerback position.

14. Carolina Panthers- Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington- The Panthers need to bolster their pass defense, and their need at corner is heightened by Chris Gamble’s retirement.  Trufant (right) can run with speed receivers and has some ability to play zone too.


15. New Orleans Saints- Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU- The Saints need a pass rusher for their 3-4 defense, and Mingo is a local product with upside.  I still don’t understand why everyone says he’s a top 15 pick, but I’m conforming reluctantly.

16. St. Louis Rams- Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia- The Rams need receivers for Sam Bradford, and Danny Amendola’s departure leaves a hole in the slot.  Austin has shot up draft boards and is likely going to be a mid-first round pick.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers- Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia- Jones worked out poorly, as expected, and some analysts are suggesting he might fall out of the first round.  I think that’s heinous.  How can the most disruptive defensive player in college football from a year ago not go in the first round?!  The Steelers are smart, they’ll value Jones’ tape over his workout numbers, and they’ll get a solid pass rusher to replace James Harrison.

18. Dallas Cowboys- Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri- The Cowboys are transitioning to a 4-3 and need a defensive tackle to pair with Jay Ratliff.  Richardson is a pass rushing specialist who would alleviate the pressure on Ware and Spencer.

19. New York Giants- Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida St.- The Giants need a pass rusher with Osi Umenyiora now in Atlanta.  Werner is a prototype left end who would be a colossal steal at this juncture.  He is a terrific pass rusher and stops the run well.

20. Chicago Bears- Alec Ogletree, ILB, Georgia- Brian Urlacher is gone, and even if he comes back for the veteran minimum the Bears have to be thinking about a replacement.  Ogletree (below) is a blockhead that has made numerous poor personal decisions, but his talent is undeniable and he’s likely to be the first inside linebacker off the board.

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21. Cincinnati Bengals- D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama- Andre Smith still isn’t back, which means he isn’t a priority for the Bengals.  Perhaps they’ll replace him with the guy who replaced him at Alabama.  Fluker is a mauler of a run blocker who should be a stud RT in the NFL.

22. St. Louis Rams (from WAS)- Matt Elam, FS, Florida- This is a reach, but the Rams need 2 safeties right now, and with an extra pick in the first round they can afford to reach a bit for need.  Elam figures to be a solid safety and his experience in the SEC should make him an instant contributor.

23. Minnesota Vikings- Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee- The Vikings signed Greg Jennings but still need a speedy deep threat to help alleviate some pressure off of Adrian Peterson.  Patterson has a ton of raw ability but is very raw and will take time to develop.  With a mentor in place in Jennings, it’s a great fit.

24. Indianapolis Colts- Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio St.- Hankins could play the nose tackle spot or the 5-technique in Chuck Pagano’s defense.  The Colts have a need on the defensive line at both spots.

25. Minnesota Vikings (from SEA)- Sylvester Williams, DT, UNC- Williams is rising up boards again and should go somewhere in the first round.  The Vikings need a defensive tackle to pair with and soon replace Kevin Williams, who is 33.

26. Green Bay Packers- Margus Hunt, DE, SMU- Hunt is a physical freak and a steal at this point in the first round.  He would play the 5-technique in Dom Campers’ 3-4, although I’d like to see him used outside as a pass rusher wherever he lands.

27. Houston Texans- Keenan Allen, WR, California- The Texans definitely need a #2 receiver after cutting Kevin Walter.  Allen (below) represents a great value late in round 1, as he has drawn comparisons to Anquan Boldin.
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28. Denver Broncos- Damontre Moore, DE, Texas A&M- The Broncos need to replace Elvis Dumervil, and Moore slides all the way to them at 28.  Bad workouts this offseason have killed Moore’s draft stock, but he was incredibly productive at Texas A&M and still belongs in the first round.

29. New England Patriots- Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee- Hunter is the type of deep threat the Patriots have lacked since the days of Randy Moss.  He is 6’4 with 4.4 speed and great leaping ability.  He’d fit it great with the tight ends and Amendola.

30. Atlanta Falcons- Johnthan Banks, CB, Mississippi St.- Banks is a tall, lanky corner who has man-to man skills.  The Falcons secondary is weak with Dunta Robinson and Brent Grimes leaving only Asante Samuel as an established corner.

31. San Francisco 49ers- John Jenkins, DT, Georgia- the 49ers could use a nose tackle to replace Isaac Sopoaga, who landed in Philly.  Jenkins is a mammoth in the middle and has the swagger Jim Harbaugh likes.

32. Baltimore Ravens- Manti Te’o, IB, Notre Dame- Mel Kiper recently said Manti Te’o won’t make it to the Ravens at 32, but I have him here for the taking.  The Ravens need to replace Ray Lewis and Dannell Ellerbe.

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