1. Kansas City Chiefs- Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M- This draft doesn’t have a stand-out top prospect, so the Chiefs are a little more unpredictable than most teams with the #1 pick. The team franchised Brandon Albert, but that doesn’t take a Tackle out of play (after all, it’s only a one year deal). Right now it looks like it's down to either Joeckel or Eric Fisher of Central Michigan. Shariff Floyd is also a possibility if the Chiefs go defense, although there's nothing to indicate this pick won't be a Left Tackle.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars- Shariff Floyd, DT, Florida- The 20-year-old Floyd is somewhere in the Top 3 in just about every mock draft out there right now. He's a dynamic interior rusher and has a very high ceiling. I thought about penciling in Dee Milliner here, but I think Gus Bradley will feel he can develop bigger, raw corners in later rounds like he did in Seattle. The Jags need a lot of pass rushing help and I think Floyd (right) is rated higher than any of the DE/OLB types on their board. Defensive Tackle is also a bigger need, despite what experts will tell you about Dion Jordan and the Leo position in Gus Bradley's defense. Jason Babin, Jeremy Mincey, and 2012 second round pick Andre Branch represent a decent group of ends.
3. Oakland Raiders- Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah- The Raiders have the worst roster in the NFL, and their defensive line is in shambles. Dee Milliner or Dion Jordan could get looks here, but I think DT is a more pressing need, and Lotulelei (below) is the top player available at this point. I even prefer him to Shariff Floyd. His heart issues are all cleared up at this point.
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4. Philadelphia Eagles- Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma- I remember back in 2010 I had Russell Okung as the top Left Tackle prospect, as many other people did. But at #4 the Redskins picked Trent Williams over Okung because the former had quicker feet and was a perfect fit in their zone blocking scheme. History could repeat itself in 2013 with another Sooner. Lane Johnson isn’t rated higher than Eric Fisher on most boards (he is on mine) but he is the fastest tackle in years and seems perfect for chip Kelly’s offense.
5. Detroit Lions- Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama- The Lions will look at a Left Tackle here for sure, but Milliner would also fill a huge need and the Lions have been smitten with him throughout the draft process. I think they take Milliner and hope Riley Reiff cuts it at left tackle. They won't give up on him after one season, will they?
6. TRADE! Miami Dolphins- Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan- The Dolphins spent crazy money in Free Agency but still need to replace Jake Long at Left Tackle. With two second round picks, they have the "ammunition", as GM Jeff Ireland called it, to move up if the right guy falls. The Browns are without a second rounder after using theirs in the supplemental draft on WR Josh Gordon, and would happily move down to recoup one. A win-win.
7. Arizona Cardinals- Dion Jordan, OLB, Oregon- The Cardinals don't get their Left Tackle to fall to them, but they do have Jordan, the consensus top 3-4 OLB in this class. The high-upside linebacker would add some much needed pass rush to a defense that already has a cornerstone on the line (DE Calais Campbell) and in the secondary (CB Patrick Peterson).
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9. New York Jets- Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU- The Jets need a pass rusher, and Ansah has value at the ninth spot. He would likely stand up as an Outside Linebacker in their 3-4 scheme. Rex Ryan probably knows the only way to save his job is to build a respectable team around a strong defense, not Mark Sanchez.
10. Tennessee Titans- Jon Cooper, OG/C, North Carolina- The Titans finalize their offensive line overhaul by adding Cooper, a great fit in their speed run offense. A Guard tandem of Levitre and Cooper would do wonders for Chris Johnson.
11. San Diego Chargers- Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia- The Chargers seem infatuated with Lane Johnson, and would likely try to move up to 6 for him if he's available. In this mock there's no Left Tackle left for them here, so they go an alternate route to help Phillip Rivers. Austin is an electric playmaker who can be used in the slot or backfield, and new coach Mike McCoy could use him to get the ball out of Rivers' hands before the pass rush gets to him. McCoy is an incredible offensive mind who designed the Tebow offense in Denver, so the mind can only imagine what he could do with a player like Austin.
12. TRADE! Dallas Cowboys- Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri- The Browns move down again, as Dallas continues their tradition of moving around the draft board to satisfy needs. Sheldon Richardson is a favorite in Carolina, and the Cowboys could really use him in their new 4-3. If Jerry Jones loves Richardson as much as some experts think, he won't hesitate to use a third round pick to trade up for him in the first round.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida St.- Rhodes appears to be the consensus second corner in the draft, and also seems like a great fit for the Cover 2 scheme the Bucs employ. The Buccaneers have a dire need at the Cornerback position.
14. Carolina Panthers- Kenny Vaccaro, FS, Texas- Vaccaro is the top Safety in this draft and as a result is being a bit over-valued. No team overvalues players like the Carolina Panthers, who gave obscene contracts to not one but 2 average Running Backs, as well as making Charles Johnson one of the highest paid defensive players in history. Vaccaro would fill a void in the Panthers secondary, although they'd prefer it if Sheldon Richardson were here for the taking.
15. New Orleans Saints- Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU- The Saints need a pass rusher for their 3-4 defense, and Mingo (below) is a local product with upside. I still don’t understand why everyone says he’s a top 15 pick, but I’m conforming reluctantly.
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16. St. Louis Rams- D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama- The Rams need a Right Tackle opposite Jake Long, because Roger Saffold refuses to play there. In this situation, the Rams can add the top RT prospect in this draft at a decent spot value wise, and then look to move Saffold for a pick in the second round (San Diego, perhaps).
17. Pittsburgh Steelers- Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia- Jones worked out poorly, as expected, and some analysts are suggesting he might fall out of the first round. I think that’s heinous. How can the most disruptive defensive player in college football from a year ago not go in the first round?! The Steelers are smart, they’ll value Jones’ tape over his workout numbers, and they’ll get a solid pass rusher to replace James Harrison.
18. TRADE! Cleveland Browns- Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia- I know the Browns have said they’ll give Brandon Weeden another chance, but he’s 29 and not a starting caliber QB in the league. What’s more, this new regime didn’t draft him, so they don’t owe him anything. They got their pass rusher in Paul Kruger as a free agent, and at this point they will have recouped their lost second round pick as well as adding a third rounder from Dallas. This area of the first round is where all the famous draftniks want Geno to go, and if the Bills pass on him at 8 he can certainly fall into the late teens.
19. New York Giants- Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida St.- The Giants need a pass rusher with Osi Umenyiora now in Atlanta. Werner is a prototype Left End who would be a colossal steal at this juncture. He is a terrific pass rusher and stops the run well.
20. Chicago Bears- Alec Ogletree, ILB, Georgia- Brian Urlacher is gone, and even if he comes back for the veteran minimum the Bears have to be thinking about a replacement. Ogletree (below) is a blockhead that has made numerous poor personal decisions, but his talent is undeniable and he’s likely to be the first inside Linebacker off the board.
21. Cincinnati Bengals- Menelik Watson, OT, Florida St.- The Bengals are at a standstill with Free Agent Right Tackle Andre Smith, and they'll likely look for a cheap replacement through the draft. Watson has risen up draft boards and could get reached for at this point because there is a steep drop off at the position after him.
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23. Minnesota Vikings- Sylvester Williams, DT, UNC- Williams is rising up boards again and should go somewhere in the first round. The Vikings need a Defensive Tackle to pair with and soon replace Kevin Williams, who is 33.
24. Indianapolis Colts- Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio St.- Hankins could play the Nose Tackle spot or the 5-technique in Chuck Pagano’s defense. The Colts have a need on the defensive line at both spots.
25. Minnesota Vikings (from SEA)- Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee Hunter is the type of deep threat the Vikings need to take the top off the defense and help Adrian Peterson. He is 6’4" tall with 4.4 speed and great leaping ability. He'd also have a great mentor in place in Greg Jennings.
26. Green Bay Packers- Margus Hunt, DE, SMU- Hunt is a physical freak and a steal at this point in the first round. He would play the 5-technique in Dom Campers’ 3-4, although I’d like to see him used outside as a pass rusher wherever he lands.
27. Houston Texans- Keenan Allen, WR, California- The Texans definitely need a #2 receiver after cutting Kevin Walter. Allen represents a great value late in round 1, as he has drawn comparisons to Anquan Boldin, even down to their slow 40 times (4.7 range).
28. Denver Broncos- Tank Carradine, DE, Florida St.- The Broncos need to replace Elvis Dumervil, and they're rumored to love Carradine, who is rising up boards late in the draft season. He had 11 sacks last season opposite Bjoern Werner in Tallahassee.
29. TRADE! Philadelphia Eagles- E.J. Manuel, QB, Florida St.- The Eagles trade up to make sure they get their mobile QB. Manuel is a great fit in Philly as he can run Chip Kelly's high-octane offense and has a west coast background, making him a fit with OC Pat Shurmer. The Eagles have been linked to Geno Smith but Manuel is a better fit and a better value. The Patriots only have 4 or 5 picks (depending on the Emmanuel Sanders decision and will look to add a mid-rounder while sliding back to the Eagles second round slot at 35.
30. Atlanta Falcons- Johnthan Banks, CB, Mississippi St.- Banks is a tall, lanky corner who has man-to man skills. The Falcons secondary is weak with Dunta Robinson and Brent Grimes leaving only Asante Samuel as an established corner.
31. San Francisco 49ers- Matt Elam, FS, Florida- The 49ers can replace the departed Dashon Goldson here with Elam, the second best Safety in this draft. A solid hitter with good range, Elam figures to be a solid Safety and his experience in the SEC should make him an instant contributor.
32. TRADE! Buffalo Bills- Ryan Nassib, QB, Syracuse- The bills need to get their QB of the future, and Nassib is a great match with his college coach being in Buffalo. While Matt Barkley is a better QB prospect than Nassib and many people regard him as more likely to go in Round 1 than Manuel or Nassib, he doesn't match up perfectly with anyone and as a result I don't think anyone trades back up to make sure they get him. The Jaguars have the top pick in the second round and have been linked to Nassib (below), so Buffalo happily parts with a mid-rounder or two to move up from 41, as Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome is always open to moving down for more picks.
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