NFL QB Rankings

In preparation for the upcoming NFL season, I figured I'd give the QB Rankings an update in preparation for 2013.  My last rankings came out before Week 17 of Last Season. Some highlights/lowlights with our 20/20 playoffs hindsight.

-On #9, Robert Griffin III: "He takes nasty hits and no one knows if his body can hold up." 

-On #18, Joe Flacco: "It looks like Joe Flacco should have signed an extension this past offseason.  He’s demonstrated yet again that he can’t carry an offense, and the Ravens are a couple weeks away from losing another playoff game with Flacco at the helm.  It’s nice that he gets there every year, but at some point the Ravens are going to get tired of the same old story."

-On #28, Christian Ponder: "Christian Ponder is the new Mark Sanchez.  He has a pretty good supporting cast and a strong defense to rely on and as a result the Vikings could be a wildcard team this year through no fault of his."

So, RG3 and Ponder made me look smart before Flacco went and ruined my whole column.  And by Flacco, I mean Rahim Moore.  Anyway before we begin, let’s review a few guidelines.

-Winning matters but isn’t the defining factor:  No, Eli Manning is not better Than Tom Brady.  Matt Schaub is not better than Drew Brees.  Record matters, but a QB is judged on winning championships (elite QBs do) and making the playoffs only gets you so far.  It’s still a team game.

-Stats are listed (not in this version, but when I update it in Week 17, they’ll be there) but rarely talked about by me:  I’m not going to rank them according to QBR or anything stupid.  Obviously those numbers are there to help us judge, not to be the judge.  I use my eyes and my brain, and then look at the numbers to settle some close calls.

-QBs are grouped together with their peers:  It’s fun and helpful.  Also, I'm only listing starters/primary starters.  Backups are at the bottom for all you Jason Campbell fans out there.

-Don’t forget 1-32 isn’t that concrete:  Players move up and down marginally all the time.  This is a rough sketch, so to speak.  I'm listing the ranking each guy was at on 12/30 of last year when I did my first rankings.  Some players definitely moved up with good playoff perfrormances.

-New to this edition is this explanation: I got some questions about how I came up with this list and how age plays a role in determining a QB's value long term vs. How good they are right now.  So I'll say that this list ranks the QBs as if the NFL was going to fold entirely in 3 years.  What QBs would have the most value if there was only 3 seasons left?  That's how I strike the balance between right now and the future- I don't want to penalize the old guys but I also want the young kids to have the advantage of improving over the next few years.

With that, let's begin.

Group 1- Cream of the Crop

1. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers- Prev Rank: 1

2. Tom Brady, New England Patriots- Prev Rank: 2

These two remain on top in a league of their own.  They're the two most accurate passers in the league, and Rodgers has mobility on his side as well.  They were both done in last season by poor defense and running into hot teams (both were knocked out by their respective conference's champion).  But there's still no doubt who the top QBs are right now in the NFL- these two could take an abysmal supporting cast to Super Bowl contention.

Group 2- The Mannings

3. Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos- Prev Rank: 3

Peyton is the only QB other than Rodgers and Brady that is pretty much a sure thing to make the playoffs as long as he's healthy.  His supporting cast in Denver is actually pretty good, and his numbers indicate he belongs in the top tier, but there's always that something holding Manning back- his playoff performances.  He's a below .500 QB when it's win-or-go-home, and that's just not worthy of being the best of the best.  Rahim Moore may have helped in keeping him out of the top group.

4. Eli Manning, New York Giants- Prev Rank: 4

What I wrote on 12/30: He’s got two rings.  That alone is elite material.  Once can be an accident.  Looking at you, Trent Dilfer, waving that thing at the camera every chance you get.  Twice is legit.  And he ranks 4^th because there’s no way in hell a healthy Rodgers, Brady, or Peyton miss the playoffs.

Now:  Well, same story.  He's clutch, and he's a winner, but the Giants are an inconsistent bunch and unfortunately in the NFL the team's performance reflects back on the Quarterback.  Eli's elite for sure, and he's terrifying in the playoffs, but the 3 guys above him are better players with a better track record statistically and consistently better performers over 16 games.

Group 3- Elite #Coachprobs

5. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints- Prev Rank: 5

2012 was a long year for Drew Brees, from his tumultuous contract extension holdout through Week 17 of a non-playoff year in New Orleans.  All of a sudden there are whispers that he’s past his prime, and he forces throws like Brett Favre in his twilight, but I’m slotting him here in the Top 5 as an elite guy still.  Sean Payton’s absence was devastating, as Jimmy Graham wasn’t utilized well, and the Saints offense slipped just enough that their defense, one of the worst in football, was exposed and destroyed.  I think 2013 will be a bounce back with Payton back behind the wheel of the Ferrari.

6. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers Prev Rank: 6

Roethlisberger battled injuries and an offensive coordinator he hates (Todd Haley) to a solid year but missed the playoffs.  Pittsburgh is lucky he’s one of the toughest players in the league because it can’t be easy playing behind that awful line.  Mike Wallace was also let go in the offseason, and Heath Miller will take some time to recover from an ACL tear.  Basically it's a real bad situation for Big Ben.  If he leads the Steelers to the playoffs next year it'll only further my opinion that he's the most underrated and under-appreciated QB in the league. 

Group 4- Kinda/Sorta Elite

7. Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens- Prev Rank 18

It’s really hard to have Joe Flacco ahead of Matt Ryan when Ryan has been better statistically every single year since they were both first round picks in 2008.  But Flacco has a ring, and an extensive playoff pedigree beforehand to fall back on, so he gets the slightest of nods here.  He’s still not elite, I don’t care what his contract is valued at or what his stats looked like against the Colts, Broncos, Patriots, and 49ers bleak secondaries in the playoffs.  Joe Flacco is very good when he’s on, very bad when he isn’t on, and his receivers dominated the opposing DBs for 4 straight weeks and that’s why he has a Super Bowl ring.

8. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons- Prev Rank:7

Matt Ryan finally won a playoff game last season, and nearly won the NFC.  He should have erased most doubt about his clutchness, and the Falcons are among the early favorites in the NFC again this year.  I’m almost positive he’ll be back ahead of Flacco at this time next season.

Group 5- The Young Guns

9. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts- Prev Rank: 8

I’m sure frequent readers of mine have read my gushing remarks about Luck before, so no need to keep repeating myself.  Just to sum it up, if the entire NFL was re-drafted today (for more than 3 years, for ever- think the “fantasy draft” option from Madden) Luck would be either the first or second pick, along with Aaron Rodgers.  That alone makes him worthy of the top spot in the “young gun” tier, as he’s the heir apparent to the Top QB throne in a few years (if not sooner).

10. Collin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers- Prev Rank: 17

Kaepernick is tough to slot because we haven’t seen him for a full season yet, but he’s also been to a Super Bowl, which is more than can be said about the other guys in this group.  I opted to put him behind Luck (because Luck is a more advanced player at this point and I think Jim Harbaugh would swap Kaepernick for his old college QB if given the choice) and RG3.  The reason I put him ahead of RG3 is because Kaepernick’s performance against the Packers in the Divisional Playoffs was basically the ceiling for RG3.  Kaepernick set the NFL Playoff rushing record for a QB and simply dominated the game.  He’s not as accurate as RG3 but he’s just as good of a runner and he has a winning pedigree already- and his best game so far is better than RG3’s.

11. Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins- Prev Rank: 9

RG3 dropping two spots isn’t his fault- Flacco and Kaepernick just jumped over him because of the 2013 playoffs.  Even with his scary knee history he’s still one of the 10 most valuable assets in the NFL right now (My Quick List: Rodgers, Luck, Ryan, Eli, Calvin Johnson, Adrian Peterson, J.J. Watt, Kaepernick, RG3, and Stafford in that order [sorry Flacco]).  He had tremendous success as a rookie in a limited offensive scheme and with a great running game, so there are certainly some factors holding him back from rising up this list.  But if he stays healthy, he’ll develop into a franchise QB and he’ll be in the top 5 on this list by 2016.

12. Matthew Stafford- Detroit Lions- Prev Rank: 10

Stafford seems primed for a breakout season after the Lions dumped Titus Young and brought in Reggie Bush to be a receiving threat out of the backfield.  Stafford quietly has thrown for over 10,000 yards in his past two seasons and he has all the tools to be a franchise QB.  I'm a fan.

13. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers- Prev Rank 13

Newton hasn’t been a winner in the NFL but that has more to do with the talent around him than it does with him.  He’s probably the toughest QB to tackle in the entire league and his arm is underrated.  Unfortunately, the Panthers continue to refuse to get him quality receivers and as such his progress might be minimal.

14. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks- Prev Rank 15

Wilson impressed me by playing well in the playoffs last year.  I still think he’s just a game manager, but I’m slowly coming around on him being something more than that at some point in the future.  Still, if I had to roll with a QB to build my team around, I’d take my chances on the more gifted Newton.

Group 6- Nobody Likes Them, but They’re Decent

15. Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears- Prev Rank: 11

16. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys- Prev Rank: 12

Romo and Cutler, linked in my mind pretty much forever, so different but so similar.  Cutler is the sulking, irritable enigma that Chicago fans hate when he plays, but absolutely adore when he’s hurt and they see what life is like without him.  Romo is the happy-go-lucky choke artist who only Dallas fans seem to support.  Both are marred by an inability to win important games, but on most Sunday’s they look like they should be 2 or 3 groups higher.  It’s those ill-timed bad games that make them undesirable and average.

Group 7- "Elite" game managers

17. Matt Schaub, Houston Texans- Prev Rank: 14

“Schaub will take the Texans as far as they can go until he has to win a game for them.  Then they’ll lose.” That’s what I said last winter and it still holds true.  Schaub can manage a game and run an offense, but he is holding the Texans back.  Flacco, Kaepernick, and Wilson were all behind him in my rankings prior to last year’s playoffs, and they all leapfrogged him by playing much better when it counted.

18. Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs- Prev Rank: Unranked

Smith will get a chance to start again after losing his job in San Fran to Kaepernick midway through last season.  I think he’s capable of succeeding as an average QB in Andy Reid’s system, but I don’t think the Chiefs can compete with the Broncos or Patriots because they simply don’t have enough talent to make up for the QB discrepancy.

19. Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals- Prev. Rank: 16

Andy Dalton is a decent QB that can win games with some help around him.  This next season will go a long way in determining if he’s a true franchise QB or just an average QB that can take the Bengals to a wild-card but no further.

20. Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Prev Rank: 19

He was great in 2010, awful in 2011, and in between in 2012.  I don’t trust Josh Freeman and until he has 2 good years in a row he can’t be anything more than a middle of the road QB.  His decision making is suspect and the Bucs new regime wasn’t impressed with him last season, as they drafted Mike Glennon in the third round.  He’s entering a make or break year.

21. Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams- Prev Rank: 20

I like Sam Bradford better than the gunslingers below him because he seems to have a pretty good head on his shoulders to go with a competent arm.  But I’ve never seen him as a true franchise QB and I was right last year when I said the Rams should have traded him to Cleveland for the 22^nd pick (which Cleveland would do because Bradford is better than Weeden) and just taken RG3 at number 2 instead of trading down and getting a bunch of draft picks from the Redskins.  Some people are talking up the Rams as playoff contenders, but that hinges on Bradford continuing to improve.

Group 8- “Gunslingers”

22. Phillip Rivers, San Diego Chargers- Prev Rank: 21

Remember when Rivers was thought of as the best QB from the 2004 draft class, even after Roethlisberger and Manning had their first rings?  Well, one far too lengthy Norv Turner coaching reign later, here we are, Rivers being second only to Mark Sanchez in turnovers over the past 2 seasons.  The talent still seems to be there, but the roster around him has crumbled and so has Rivers’ decision making and ability to win games in the 4^th quarter.

23. Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles- Prev Rank: Unranked

Vick is the favorite to win the starting job in Philly again, and he’s a tough guy to slot on this list.  I put him here because he’s so turnover prone, but his upside is immense if his speed is still a factor.  Chip Kelly could make him a star again, but he could just as easily wash out of the league is he struggles again this season.

24. Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals Prev Rank: 22

In a sense, Carson Palmer was the original Phillip Rivers, even down to the ACL injuries they sustained early in their careers (though neither was particularly responsible for their collapse.  Palmer was a much prettier mechanical guy than Rivers, but both were young QBs in dynamic offenses that were poised to take over the AFC, only to fail and slowly crumble into mediocre, turnover-prone gunslingers.  Palmer has since been traded twice, and he’s on his last legs in Arizona.  I’d be a bit surprised if he were a starting QB 2 years from now.

Group 9- Young with upside

25. Matt Flynn, Oakland Raiders- Prev Rank: Unranked

Flynn is the projected starter in Oakland, although Tyler Wilson is making a lot of noise too.  I hope we finally get to see Flynn get a chance.  He’s tough to slot because he isn’t that young anymore, but he’s as unproven as a rookie.  I think if he starts this season we might see him higher on this list next year.

26. Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins-  Prev Rank: 24

Tannehill has been surrounded by talent this offseason as the Dolphins go all in on rebuilding around him.  I think he’s still got a ways to go to be a franchise QB but he has shown more promise than the guys below him in this group.

27. E.J. Manuel, Buffalo Bills- Prev Rank: Uranked

I expect Manuel to get the starting nod in Buffalo, and we all know how I feel about his upside.  I’d rather have him right now than the rest of the guys on this list, and I haven’t even seen him play a down yet in the pros.

28. Jake Locker, Tennessee Titans- Prev Rank: 25

Locker struggled with injuries and accuracy woes last year and is entering a make or break year with the Titans.  If he improves to where he can manage a good game, the Flaming Thumbtacks have a shot at playoff contention.  If he doesn’t, they’ll be picking in the top 10 of next years draft, and looking for a QB too.

Group 10- Only if you’re desperate

29. Mark Sanchez, New York Jets- Prev Rank: 27

We have a pretty good idea of what Mark Sanchez is at this point.  He’s the same player he was in his rookie year, as his lack of improvement coupled with a severe drop-off in supporting cast has all but sealed his fate as a starting QB in the league.  I still expect him to get the Week 1 start over Geno Smith, but Sanchez won’t make it through the first month of the regular season unless he improves significantly.

30. Christian Ponder, Minnesota Vikings- Prev Rank: 28

Christian Ponder is the new Mark Sanchez.  He has a pretty good supporting cast and a strong defense to rely on and as a result the Vikings are a wildcard team in the playoffs.  Sanchez played well in those games early in his career, whereas Ponder was injured and missed his chance to shine.  If the Vikings regress this year after drafting 3 players in the first round, it will fall on Ponder’s shoulders and he’ll be replaced in 2014.

31. Brandon Weeden, Cleveland Browns- Prev Rank: 29

Weeden looks like a dud, not that anyone who doesn’t support “drafting 28 year-old QBs who played in a pass-friendly system in college” is surprised.  It’s really too bad because outside of the QB position I think the Browns were a pretty decent team last year (certainly better than Pittsburgh) and now they’re stuck with another year of Weeden because they hated all the QBs in the 2013 draft class.

Group 11- The Liabilities

32. Blaine Gabbert, Jacksonville Jaguars- Prev Rank: Unranked

Blaine Gabbert is a flat out charity case at the Quarterback position.  He has zero pocket presence, no control of his huddle, and has been accused of being a whiner and an excuse maker.  I have no personal vendettas against Gabbert but he’s clearly the worst projected starter in the NFL right now, and the reason why the Jags are early favorites for the #1 pick in the 2014 draft.

Notable Backups: Drew Stanton, Nick Foles, Matt Barkley, Ryan Mallett and Geno Smith would be in Group 9, Matt Cassel, Terrelle Pryor, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jason Campbell, Tarvaris Jackson and Kevin Kolb in Group 10, Chad Henne in Group 11