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Waking Up from the Dwightmare: The D12 Destination that's Shocking but Perfect

I really don’t want to talk about Dwight Howard.  Everyone is aware of how he’s immature and doesn’t know what he wants and this and that and Stan Van Gundy and the whole 9 yards.  Enough.  I’m sick of him.  I also think he’s still the best Center in the NBA IF he gets his you-know-what together this offseason and gets a fresh start.  Yes, away from the Lakers. 

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If it’s any indication of how far he’s fallen, I actually tried to figure out if maybe Milwaukee could get enough cap space to sign him, pair him with Brandon Jennings, Ersan Ilyasova, J.J. Reddick, and a bunch of shooters to try and re-create his Orlando team in a smaller market where people wouldn’t crucify him to not double-knotting his shoes or whatever irks the people in Los Angeles.  So there’s that.  I thought maybe the Milwaukee effing Bucks would be one of his best scenarios.

So what has to happen in order for all this D12 crap to just go away?  One, Dwight needs to get paid.  Two, he needs to leave L.A.  The conundrum here is that the Lakers can offer him more money than everyone else, because the NBA makes rules that prevent star players from leaving crappy situations without having to take less money (just about the only thing the owners have to negotiate with, but still).  So a sign and trade is ideal for both sides- the Lakers won’t be pissed they lost him for nothing, and Dwight still gets as much money as possible.

The big destination everyone is screaming and yelling about is Houston.  Omer Asik and some other pieces would go back to the Lakers and the Rockets would build around James Harden and Dwight.  The problem with that is the Rockets have Darrell Morey, in my opinion one of the elite General Managers in the NBA.  If the asking price is Chandler Parsons and Asik among other pieces, I don’t think Morey will bite.  He spent years building up good young assets/cap space and only gives them up when he steals a trade (like the all too predictable Harden deal last summer).  I don’t know if Houston wants Dwight unless he will sign outright with them, and even then, I’m not sold on Morey knocking down Dwight’s door to hand him a max deal.

So if Houston falls through (I think it will) Dwight is supposed to go home to Atlanta.  I wanted the Hawks and Magic to swap Horford and Howard 2 years ago but instead the Magic opted to hold onto him too long, and then send him to L.A. for a few solid young pieces.  Fine by me.  The dilemma here is that there’s no conceivable reason for Dwight to go to Atlanta, except that he’s from there.  He and Horford would make a nice front line, but who is going to give them room to operate?  The Hawks are about to lose Josh Smith and are pretty much stuck in the dreaded “No Man’s Land.”  Even with Howard they aren’t contenders, but they’re too good to get high lottery picks or acquire the cap space to become a contender.  D12 would sell tickets, but going to Atlanta would be another stupid basketball decision to add to his résumé. 

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So where does Dwight go?  Frankly, I don’t care.  I’m tired of listening to the talk, and I’d like for him to

either go somewhere where he can bounce back to being a stud or just go away altogether.  I’ve already stated a sign-and-trade is ideal, and then I had a slight epiphany today about where he could go.

Just for a second here, pretend you the reader are running the Lakers.  Congratulations!  You just inherited an old team of overpaid underperformers, and a one-legged Kobe Bryant!  Anyway, I’m a rival GM, and I know Dwight wants that 5 year, $118 million deal that only you can give him. I’ve got an elite shot-blocker I can give you in return to replace his production.  He’s only 24 and his offensive game is getting stronger and stronger (not that Dwight’s is good).  His rebounding and shot blocking numbers went up in this year’s playoffs, so you know he can handle big moments and the L.A. spotlight.  He’s also affordable- at $12.25 per year over the next 4 you’re getting a young, cost- effective franchise post player.  Why am I offering you this for your cranky Center whose numbers are down?  I need to create a buzz for my team and I’d like to shed this contract we have.  It only has 2 years left on it and the salaries match up perfectly if we throw him into the swap of big guys.  What do you say?  You eat this contract for 2 years and get one of the top 2 under-25 big guys in the league (along with Anthony Davis), rather than losing Dwight Howard for nothing.

Do you say yes?

If you say no, I hope Dwight Howard signs with Houston outright and you enjoy the lottery next year.

If you say yes, Dwight Howard signs-and-trades to…

…

…

The Oklahoma City Thunder.

Dwight Howard in a sign and trade for Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins.  That’s my trade.  The salaries line up, Dwight gets his money, the Lakers get a franchise big guy (who has led the league in blocks 3 years

running) and the Thunder get to roll out a “Big 3” of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and Dwight Howard.

I’m thinking about writing to both GMs to try and make this happen.  It’d be great for basketball.

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Here are our roadblocks for each team:

Lakers: Would the Lakers move Howard for Ibaka?  Would they eat that contract of Perkins?  I say yes for 2 reasons.  First, Kobe’s massive contract has 2 years left, so L.A. isn’t playing with money for another 2 years anyway (minimum).  Bill Simmons thinks they’ll amnesty Kobe after next year and trade away Pau Gasol to make a run at LeBron James as a free agent.  I just don’t see why LBJ would go to the Lakers when they’d offer him a terrible supporting cast (at least initially).  The only thing the Lakers would have is their history, which means diddly-poo to NBA players in today’s age.  Don’t believe me?  How about all those good free agents the Celtics NEVER SIGN because Boston is cold, the women are, uh…not the best, and there’s the underlying racism issues that overshadow 17 banners hanging in the Boston Garden.  History means nothing next to night life, warm weather, and media exposure so they can launch their own fashion lines and their wives can get on ESPN 4 or 5 times a year.

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So the Lakers can bet it all on LeBron not caring about winning anymore OR they can pair Ibaka with his Olympic teammate Pau Gasol and try and resurrect Gasol’s career.  Ibaka is a better partner for Gasol than Dwight because he’d allow him to go back into the low post on offense where he is most effective, while still offering the rim protection Howard provides on D.  So the Lakers could run out a 4-5 tandem that could contend with Memphis’ and then bring Kobe back for the stretch run and become the dark horse no one wants to see in the West come playoff time (I still believe L.A. would have been contenders the past 2

seasons if they didn’t mess up Pau Gasol mentally so bad).  That seems like a better plan to me.

Thunder: The Thunder supporters out there are screaming about small market bull crap and how they can’t pay 3 franchise guys max contracts.  BEEEE…ESSSS.  First and foremost, OKC has an unbelievable fan base, and they can absolutely afford to pay the luxury tax.  They make money, and they get a big chunk of TV revenue because they’re popular all over the place.  So shush up about being poor ol’ OKC and think about the people in Milwaukee who have INCREDIBLE basketball fans and jack squat for NBA success over the past 25 years or whatever.

Second, the Thunder could have paid Harden a max contract, but they realized they couldn’t pay Harden AND Ibaka so they chose Ibaka as the cheaper of the two options, as well as having a big man to go with their 2 perimeter All-Stars.  Fine.  They screwed up, but they aren’t getting Harden back so they’re going to have to figure it out without The Bearded One.  Let’s run this down:

The Thunder couldn’t keep Harden to a max deal AND keep Ibaka.  So in theory they can’t sign Howard to a max deal unless…Oh my lord unless they trade Ibaka for him!  Wow, that was so difficult to figure out!  And…wait for it…they can unload Perk’s hilarious $17.5 million over the next 2 years off their books to make the trade work by NBA rules! Double whammy!

Look at it this way:  Over the next 2 years, the Thunder can pay Perk and Ibaka approximately $42.5 million, or they can spend roughly the same amount on Dwight Howard.  They’re spending that money either way.  And Kevin Martin’s deal just came off the books, and they paid him nearly $12.5 million last year.  They have the financial ability to do the contract.

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I’m really stoked about this idea.  I think it works out as well as it can for all parties involved.  It also allows D12 to be the third banana on a title contender for the next 5 years at least (as well as compete with Westbrook for scapegoat duties if they fail).  It’s a PERFECT sign-and-trade deal for the Thunder, and it’s as good as the Lakers can hope for, in my opinion.  It’d also be great for Howard’s career, as well as Ibaka’s if he continues to blossom.  It just makes too much sense…

…which is why it’s definitely not happening.  Oh well.

Who Am I? The Melodrama that is Carmelo Anthony

Carmelo Anthony is one of the most polarizing athletes in sports today.  The New York Knicks star is unquestionably a superstar basketball player.  He’s one of the two best scorers on the planet, he’s one of about 6 or 7 NBA players who can win a game by themselves, and he’s one of a small handful of people who thinks he’s better than LeBron James and can actually prove it on a good night.

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All this, and yet Carmelo lacks all the hardware associated with the all-time greats.  He has only made one appearance in the Conference Finals (2009), and never come close to winning an NBA Championship.  He’s never been a real threat to win an NBA MVP Award.  And hell, it’s worth noting that he was traded by the team that drafted him before he could bolt as a free agent (I find it very fitting that Carmelo, Deron Williams, Dwight Howard, and even Chris Paul were traded under these circumstances, but LeBron was not- isn’t that the difference between LeBron James and the rest of the superstars in the league?).

So, for lack of a better term, Carmelo Anthony is a loser.  He won an NCAA Championship in his one year at Syracuse, and since then he’s been allergic to winning.  His playoff numbers are a little worse than his regular season statistics.  ESPN loves to blame him for every Knicks loss even if the second best player on the team in the series is Kenyon Martin.  He just has that negative stigma that certain athletes get for coming up short in the postseason.  People expect Carmelo to fail.

All of this Melo talk has had NBA pundits searching for answers.  How can Carmelo be a consistent superstar in this league and never sniff a title or MVP Award?  I’ve heard countless comparisons in the past week- from Charles Barkley to Tracy McGrady and back again.  But I haven’t gotten any answers. 

Carmelo is a better player than McGrady- Carmelo never misses the playoffs and McGrady was never able to win a series at all on the rare occurrence that he got there.  They were both elite scorers but Anthony was a more dominant player and a tougher matchup than T-Mac.  Carmelo also won a pair of gold medals for Team USA, and I’m including that as a major basketball accomplishment.

On the other hand, Barkley is a better player than Carmelo.  Barkley made the Finals in 1993 and was the MVP that year with the Suns.  Rebounding aside, Barkley was just a more efficient offensive player.  He also was named first team All-NBA 5 times to Anthony’s…0.  Carmelo has never been recognized as one of the 2 best forwards in the NBA in his 10 years in the league.

So, with all that in mind, I decided to go on a quest to find out just who Carmelo Anthony’s peers are historically.  I had some ideas going in, and some that I found out about along the way, but I’ve got 3 basketball Hall of Famers that are similar in terms of their career resume.  It’s time for a good ol’ fashioned game of "Who Am I?"

First, our baseline.  Here’s Carmelo Anthony’s Career Highlights after his first 10 seasons.

1^st Team All-Rookie, 6 All-Star Games, 4 All-NBA 3^rd Teams, 2 All-NBA 2^nd Teams, 1 Scoring Title (2013), 2 Olympic Gold Medals (2008, 2012), Never Finished Higher Than 3^rd in MVP Voting (2013), 1 Conference Finals Appearance, 25.0 career ppg

Player X

First 10 Seasons Accomplishments: NBA Rookie of the Year, 9 All-Star Games, 6 All-NBA 2^nd Teams, 1 All-NBA 1^st Team, 2 Olympic Gold Medals, Never Finished Higher than 4^th in MVP Voting, 2 Conference Finals Appearances (1 NBA Finals Appearance), 23.8 career ppg

Carmelo-related Hint:  Like Anthony, I’m a former NCAA Tournament Most Outstanding Player, and I also played for the Knicks.

Who am I?

Player X is Patrick Ewing.  

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Ewing was a little more consistent than Anthony through his first 10 seasons, making more All-Star teams and better All-NBA Teams.  Like Anthony, he never was a serous MVP candidate, coming in 4^th in 1989, 1993, and 1995.  He won Olympic Gold in 1984 as a collegiate and as part of the 1992 Dream Team.  Like Anthony, he was a highly hyped Knicks star that proved to be a great NBA player, yet still felt like a disappointment.  He made it to one NBA Finals in 1994, losing to the Houston Rockets in 7 games.  Ewing was outplayed by Rockets Center Hakeem Olajuwon in the series.  Like Anthony, Ewing was stuck in the same conference as the best player of his generation- Michael Jordan and LeBron James- which hindered their chances to make Championship runs.  Both players also had superior players at their position in the opposing conference in their way of All-NBA First Teams- Ewing with Olajuwon, Anthony with Kevin Durant.  Same team, same tough-luck circumstances, same degree of career success.

The similarities are obvious, but there are some differences.  Ewing was obviously a Center and he was a much better defender.  It isn’t fair to compare their Rebounding totals but Ewing was a 3 time All-NBA Defense 2^nd Teamer.  Anthony plays about as much defense as you or I do on a nightly basis in the NBA.  Ewing went on to have a few more good years after his first 10, but he never won that elusive championship ring.  He is one of the 50 greatest players of All-Time, and I’d estimate he ranks somewhere in the 35-45 range in that regard.  At the end of the day, I think Ewing will go down as the better player between the two (unless Anthony wins a title) but the similarities are awfully close to this point.

Player Y

First 10 Seasons Accomplishments: 1^st Team All-Rookie, 9 All-Star Games, 2 All-ABA 2^nd Teams, 1 All-NBA 2^nd Team, 5 All-NBA First Teams, 4 Scoring Titles, Never Finished Higher than 2^nd in MVP Voting, 1 Conference Finals Appearance, 26.2 ppg

Carmelo-Related Hint:  I’m a wing player who, like Carmelo, played notoriously poor defense.

Who Am I?

Player Y is George Gervin.

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“The Iceman” is pretty much Carmelo’s ceiling if he’s going to continue to be another high scoring forward with no defensive desire or playoff success.  Gervin played his first 3 years in the ABA (pre-merger), but none of his scoring titles came from his ABA days.  He won 3 straight scoring titles at one point and was the best pure scorer of the late 70’s and early 80’s.  He was beaten in a semi-close race by Bill Walton for the 1978 MVP and then came in a distant second to Moses Malone the following year.  Outside of that, he was never one of the best overall players of his era, and he never contended for an NBA Championship.  In terms of offensive productivity, he was slightly better than Carmelo but they were very similar.

The differences are slim here.  The 1^st team NBA nods and the scoring titles give Ice a better resume at this point than Carmelo.  Unless Carmelo goes on a tear and wins the next 2 (matching the 3-peat), Gervin will always hold that edge.  I don’t think Carmelo makes 5 All-NBA 1^st Teams, but Gervin earned those nods in a time when the league wasn’t as strong as it is now, and icons at his spots like Magic and Bird weren’t in the league yet.  I think the close raw stats are a better indicator than the distant All-NBA honors, but I still give Gervin a slight edge.  Like with Ewing, Anthony is going to have to win a title to leapfrog Gervin, another player in that 35-45 range all-time.

Player Z

First 10 Seasons Accomplishments: 1^st Team All-Rookie, 7 All-Star Games,1 All-NBA 3^rd Team, 3 All-NBA 2^nd Teams, 1 All-NBA 1^st Team, 1 Scoring Title, Never Finished Higher than 2^nd in MVP Voting, 0 Conference Finals Appearances, 26.2 ppg

Carmelo-Related Hint: I’m a Small Forward like Carmelo, and I also clashed with a once in a generation Small Forward in my Conference.

Who Am I?

Player Z is Dominique Wilkins.

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Wilkins is the player I liken most with Carmelo.  Both are exciting, must-see superstar scorers, although each only won a single scoring title.  Neither of them had playoff success at all, with Wilkins never even making a Conference Finals because of the poor supporting casts he had.  Anthony is one of the few players who can outplay LeBron-although no one would accuse him of being better than LBJ.  Likewise, ‘Nique had some epic duels with Larry Bird, most notably in their Game 7 Eastern Conference Semifinals in 1988.  Wilkins also had a few classic Dunk Contests, but by and large they’ve got nearly identical resumes.  Their All-Star and All-NBA Teams are pretty close too.  Did I mention both of them are 6’8” and 230 pounds?  Noted.  To top it all off, here’s their outrageous career shooting stats:

Melo- 8.9 FGM/G, 19.5 FGA/G, 45.6 FG%, 33.4 3PT%, 80.8 FT%

Nique-9.3 FGM/G, 20.1 FGA/G, 46.1 FG%, 31.9 3PT%, 81.1 FT%

Translation: Holy $h!t

There aren’t many differences right now between Wilkins and Anthony.  If Carmelo wins an MVP or a ring, he’ll move up closer to or even above the Ewing or Gervin player comparisons, but for now, he looks like the Dominique of his generation.  He’s an unbelievable talent, and at the end of the day people will look at Carmelo’s career and wonder how he didn’t have more success.  ‘Nique is a fringe Top 50 player all-time, and I think that’s where Carmelo is headed.  He’ll be a Hall of Famer, but someone who has more “should have’s” in his career than the guys ahead of him.

Carmelo Anthony still has a few good years left to define his career as a player.  He could rise to new heights, but given his bad luck playing with LeBron and Durant, as well as his inability to make his (admittedly subpar) teammates better to the point where he’s an MVP or a Champion, right now the answer to Carmelo Anthony’s “Who Am I?” is Dominique Wilkins.

2013 NBA Playoffs Conference Finals Preview

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We're two rounds into the 2013 NBA Playoffs and my record stands at a respectable 9-3 (with 5 series picked exactly- winner&number of games).  And I feel really good about this round because I've gotten the Heat and Spurs series' all exactly right at 4-0, and in the number of games.  So if that trend continues...look out.  Here's the picks.

East

1 Miami vs. 3 Indiana
Key Matchup:  Dwyane Wade vs. Lance Stephenson

Wade's knee issues have made the Heat look strangely mortal, although they haven't played a team good enough to test that yet.  The Pacers' X-Factor is Stephenson, a talented guard that stepped up to close out the Knicks in Game 6.  If Stephenson can approach Wade's production, the Pacers can make this series VERY interesting.

Prediction:  Heat in 7


West

2 San Antonio vs. 5 Memphis
Key Matchup:  Manu Ginobili vs. Tony Allen

The Spurs have shown they can handle big man duos before, having swept the Lakers in Round 1.  But whereas the Lakers had ZERO capable guards to match up with Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, those two guys were able to play free and get shots for themselves and their teammates.  Parker and Mike Conley will be a nice matchup, but it's Ginobili vs. Allen that will decide the series.  If Manu can get hot, the Spurs will be able to free up their 3-point shooters and run their high octane offensive system.  If Allen shuts down Ginobili, the Spurs will be left with one offensive playmaker (Parker) much like OKC was with Russell Westbrook being absent.

Prediction:  Grizzlies in 6

NFL QB Rankings

In preparation for the upcoming NFL season, I figured I'd give the QB Rankings an update in preparation for 2013.  My last rankings came out before Week 17 of Last Season. Some highlights/lowlights with our 20/20 playoffs hindsight.

-On #9, Robert Griffin III: "He takes nasty hits and no one knows if his body can hold up." 

-On #18, Joe Flacco: "It looks like Joe Flacco should have signed an extension this past offseason.  He’s demonstrated yet again that he can’t carry an offense, and the Ravens are a couple weeks away from losing another playoff game with Flacco at the helm.  It’s nice that he gets there every year, but at some point the Ravens are going to get tired of the same old story."

-On #28, Christian Ponder: "Christian Ponder is the new Mark Sanchez.  He has a pretty good supporting cast and a strong defense to rely on and as a result the Vikings could be a wildcard team this year through no fault of his."

So, RG3 and Ponder made me look smart before Flacco went and ruined my whole column.  And by Flacco, I mean Rahim Moore.  Anyway before we begin, let’s review a few guidelines.

-Winning matters but isn’t the defining factor:  No, Eli Manning is not better Than Tom Brady.  Matt Schaub is not better than Drew Brees.  Record matters, but a QB is judged on winning championships (elite QBs do) and making the playoffs only gets you so far.  It’s still a team game.

-Stats are listed (not in this version, but when I update it in Week 17, they’ll be there) but rarely talked about by me:  I’m not going to rank them according to QBR or anything stupid.  Obviously those numbers are there to help us judge, not to be the judge.  I use my eyes and my brain, and then look at the numbers to settle some close calls.

-QBs are grouped together with their peers:  It’s fun and helpful.  Also, I'm only listing starters/primary starters.  Backups are at the bottom for all you Jason Campbell fans out there.

-Don’t forget 1-32 isn’t that concrete:  Players move up and down marginally all the time.  This is a rough sketch, so to speak.  I'm listing the ranking each guy was at on 12/30 of last year when I did my first rankings.  Some players definitely moved up with good playoff perfrormances.

-New to this edition is this explanation: I got some questions about how I came up with this list and how age plays a role in determining a QB's value long term vs. How good they are right now.  So I'll say that this list ranks the QBs as if the NFL was going to fold entirely in 3 years.  What QBs would have the most value if there was only 3 seasons left?  That's how I strike the balance between right now and the future- I don't want to penalize the old guys but I also want the young kids to have the advantage of improving over the next few years.

With that, let's begin.

Group 1- Cream of the Crop

1. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers- Prev Rank: 1

2. Tom Brady, New England Patriots- Prev Rank: 2

These two remain on top in a league of their own.  They're the two most accurate passers in the league, and Rodgers has mobility on his side as well.  They were both done in last season by poor defense and running into hot teams (both were knocked out by their respective conference's champion).  But there's still no doubt who the top QBs are right now in the NFL- these two could take an abysmal supporting cast to Super Bowl contention.

Group 2- The Mannings

3. Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos- Prev Rank: 3

Peyton is the only QB other than Rodgers and Brady that is pretty much a sure thing to make the playoffs as long as he's healthy.  His supporting cast in Denver is actually pretty good, and his numbers indicate he belongs in the top tier, but there's always that something holding Manning back- his playoff performances.  He's a below .500 QB when it's win-or-go-home, and that's just not worthy of being the best of the best.  Rahim Moore may have helped in keeping him out of the top group.

4. Eli Manning, New York Giants- Prev Rank: 4

What I wrote on 12/30: He’s got two rings.  That alone is elite material.  Once can be an accident.  Looking at you, Trent Dilfer, waving that thing at the camera every chance you get.  Twice is legit.  And he ranks 4^th because there’s no way in hell a healthy Rodgers, Brady, or Peyton miss the playoffs.

Now:  Well, same story.  He's clutch, and he's a winner, but the Giants are an inconsistent bunch and unfortunately in the NFL the team's performance reflects back on the Quarterback.  Eli's elite for sure, and he's terrifying in the playoffs, but the 3 guys above him are better players with a better track record statistically and consistently better performers over 16 games.

Group 3- Elite #Coachprobs

5. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints- Prev Rank: 5

2012 was a long year for Drew Brees, from his tumultuous contract extension holdout through Week 17 of a non-playoff year in New Orleans.  All of a sudden there are whispers that he’s past his prime, and he forces throws like Brett Favre in his twilight, but I’m slotting him here in the Top 5 as an elite guy still.  Sean Payton’s absence was devastating, as Jimmy Graham wasn’t utilized well, and the Saints offense slipped just enough that their defense, one of the worst in football, was exposed and destroyed.  I think 2013 will be a bounce back with Payton back behind the wheel of the Ferrari.

6. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers Prev Rank: 6

Roethlisberger battled injuries and an offensive coordinator he hates (Todd Haley) to a solid year but missed the playoffs.  Pittsburgh is lucky he’s one of the toughest players in the league because it can’t be easy playing behind that awful line.  Mike Wallace was also let go in the offseason, and Heath Miller will take some time to recover from an ACL tear.  Basically it's a real bad situation for Big Ben.  If he leads the Steelers to the playoffs next year it'll only further my opinion that he's the most underrated and under-appreciated QB in the league. 

Group 4- Kinda/Sorta Elite

7. Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens- Prev Rank 18

It’s really hard to have Joe Flacco ahead of Matt Ryan when Ryan has been better statistically every single year since they were both first round picks in 2008.  But Flacco has a ring, and an extensive playoff pedigree beforehand to fall back on, so he gets the slightest of nods here.  He’s still not elite, I don’t care what his contract is valued at or what his stats looked like against the Colts, Broncos, Patriots, and 49ers bleak secondaries in the playoffs.  Joe Flacco is very good when he’s on, very bad when he isn’t on, and his receivers dominated the opposing DBs for 4 straight weeks and that’s why he has a Super Bowl ring.

8. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons- Prev Rank:7

Matt Ryan finally won a playoff game last season, and nearly won the NFC.  He should have erased most doubt about his clutchness, and the Falcons are among the early favorites in the NFC again this year.  I’m almost positive he’ll be back ahead of Flacco at this time next season.

Group 5- The Young Guns

9. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts- Prev Rank: 8

I’m sure frequent readers of mine have read my gushing remarks about Luck before, so no need to keep repeating myself.  Just to sum it up, if the entire NFL was re-drafted today (for more than 3 years, for ever- think the “fantasy draft” option from Madden) Luck would be either the first or second pick, along with Aaron Rodgers.  That alone makes him worthy of the top spot in the “young gun” tier, as he’s the heir apparent to the Top QB throne in a few years (if not sooner).

10. Collin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers- Prev Rank: 17

Kaepernick is tough to slot because we haven’t seen him for a full season yet, but he’s also been to a Super Bowl, which is more than can be said about the other guys in this group.  I opted to put him behind Luck (because Luck is a more advanced player at this point and I think Jim Harbaugh would swap Kaepernick for his old college QB if given the choice) and RG3.  The reason I put him ahead of RG3 is because Kaepernick’s performance against the Packers in the Divisional Playoffs was basically the ceiling for RG3.  Kaepernick set the NFL Playoff rushing record for a QB and simply dominated the game.  He’s not as accurate as RG3 but he’s just as good of a runner and he has a winning pedigree already- and his best game so far is better than RG3’s.

11. Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins- Prev Rank: 9

RG3 dropping two spots isn’t his fault- Flacco and Kaepernick just jumped over him because of the 2013 playoffs.  Even with his scary knee history he’s still one of the 10 most valuable assets in the NFL right now (My Quick List: Rodgers, Luck, Ryan, Eli, Calvin Johnson, Adrian Peterson, J.J. Watt, Kaepernick, RG3, and Stafford in that order [sorry Flacco]).  He had tremendous success as a rookie in a limited offensive scheme and with a great running game, so there are certainly some factors holding him back from rising up this list.  But if he stays healthy, he’ll develop into a franchise QB and he’ll be in the top 5 on this list by 2016.

12. Matthew Stafford- Detroit Lions- Prev Rank: 10

Stafford seems primed for a breakout season after the Lions dumped Titus Young and brought in Reggie Bush to be a receiving threat out of the backfield.  Stafford quietly has thrown for over 10,000 yards in his past two seasons and he has all the tools to be a franchise QB.  I'm a fan.

13. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers- Prev Rank 13

Newton hasn’t been a winner in the NFL but that has more to do with the talent around him than it does with him.  He’s probably the toughest QB to tackle in the entire league and his arm is underrated.  Unfortunately, the Panthers continue to refuse to get him quality receivers and as such his progress might be minimal.

14. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks- Prev Rank 15

Wilson impressed me by playing well in the playoffs last year.  I still think he’s just a game manager, but I’m slowly coming around on him being something more than that at some point in the future.  Still, if I had to roll with a QB to build my team around, I’d take my chances on the more gifted Newton.

Group 6- Nobody Likes Them, but They’re Decent

15. Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears- Prev Rank: 11

16. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys- Prev Rank: 12

Romo and Cutler, linked in my mind pretty much forever, so different but so similar.  Cutler is the sulking, irritable enigma that Chicago fans hate when he plays, but absolutely adore when he’s hurt and they see what life is like without him.  Romo is the happy-go-lucky choke artist who only Dallas fans seem to support.  Both are marred by an inability to win important games, but on most Sunday’s they look like they should be 2 or 3 groups higher.  It’s those ill-timed bad games that make them undesirable and average.

Group 7- "Elite" game managers

17. Matt Schaub, Houston Texans- Prev Rank: 14

“Schaub will take the Texans as far as they can go until he has to win a game for them.  Then they’ll lose.” That’s what I said last winter and it still holds true.  Schaub can manage a game and run an offense, but he is holding the Texans back.  Flacco, Kaepernick, and Wilson were all behind him in my rankings prior to last year’s playoffs, and they all leapfrogged him by playing much better when it counted.

18. Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs- Prev Rank: Unranked

Smith will get a chance to start again after losing his job in San Fran to Kaepernick midway through last season.  I think he’s capable of succeeding as an average QB in Andy Reid’s system, but I don’t think the Chiefs can compete with the Broncos or Patriots because they simply don’t have enough talent to make up for the QB discrepancy.

19. Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals- Prev. Rank: 16

Andy Dalton is a decent QB that can win games with some help around him.  This next season will go a long way in determining if he’s a true franchise QB or just an average QB that can take the Bengals to a wild-card but no further.

20. Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Prev Rank: 19

He was great in 2010, awful in 2011, and in between in 2012.  I don’t trust Josh Freeman and until he has 2 good years in a row he can’t be anything more than a middle of the road QB.  His decision making is suspect and the Bucs new regime wasn’t impressed with him last season, as they drafted Mike Glennon in the third round.  He’s entering a make or break year.

21. Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams- Prev Rank: 20

I like Sam Bradford better than the gunslingers below him because he seems to have a pretty good head on his shoulders to go with a competent arm.  But I’ve never seen him as a true franchise QB and I was right last year when I said the Rams should have traded him to Cleveland for the 22^nd pick (which Cleveland would do because Bradford is better than Weeden) and just taken RG3 at number 2 instead of trading down and getting a bunch of draft picks from the Redskins.  Some people are talking up the Rams as playoff contenders, but that hinges on Bradford continuing to improve.

Group 8- “Gunslingers”

22. Phillip Rivers, San Diego Chargers- Prev Rank: 21

Remember when Rivers was thought of as the best QB from the 2004 draft class, even after Roethlisberger and Manning had their first rings?  Well, one far too lengthy Norv Turner coaching reign later, here we are, Rivers being second only to Mark Sanchez in turnovers over the past 2 seasons.  The talent still seems to be there, but the roster around him has crumbled and so has Rivers’ decision making and ability to win games in the 4^th quarter.

23. Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles- Prev Rank: Unranked

Vick is the favorite to win the starting job in Philly again, and he’s a tough guy to slot on this list.  I put him here because he’s so turnover prone, but his upside is immense if his speed is still a factor.  Chip Kelly could make him a star again, but he could just as easily wash out of the league is he struggles again this season.

24. Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals Prev Rank: 22

In a sense, Carson Palmer was the original Phillip Rivers, even down to the ACL injuries they sustained early in their careers (though neither was particularly responsible for their collapse.  Palmer was a much prettier mechanical guy than Rivers, but both were young QBs in dynamic offenses that were poised to take over the AFC, only to fail and slowly crumble into mediocre, turnover-prone gunslingers.  Palmer has since been traded twice, and he’s on his last legs in Arizona.  I’d be a bit surprised if he were a starting QB 2 years from now.

Group 9- Young with upside

25. Matt Flynn, Oakland Raiders- Prev Rank: Unranked

Flynn is the projected starter in Oakland, although Tyler Wilson is making a lot of noise too.  I hope we finally get to see Flynn get a chance.  He’s tough to slot because he isn’t that young anymore, but he’s as unproven as a rookie.  I think if he starts this season we might see him higher on this list next year.

26. Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins-  Prev Rank: 24

Tannehill has been surrounded by talent this offseason as the Dolphins go all in on rebuilding around him.  I think he’s still got a ways to go to be a franchise QB but he has shown more promise than the guys below him in this group.

27. E.J. Manuel, Buffalo Bills- Prev Rank: Uranked

I expect Manuel to get the starting nod in Buffalo, and we all know how I feel about his upside.  I’d rather have him right now than the rest of the guys on this list, and I haven’t even seen him play a down yet in the pros.

28. Jake Locker, Tennessee Titans- Prev Rank: 25

Locker struggled with injuries and accuracy woes last year and is entering a make or break year with the Titans.  If he improves to where he can manage a good game, the Flaming Thumbtacks have a shot at playoff contention.  If he doesn’t, they’ll be picking in the top 10 of next years draft, and looking for a QB too.

Group 10- Only if you’re desperate

29. Mark Sanchez, New York Jets- Prev Rank: 27

We have a pretty good idea of what Mark Sanchez is at this point.  He’s the same player he was in his rookie year, as his lack of improvement coupled with a severe drop-off in supporting cast has all but sealed his fate as a starting QB in the league.  I still expect him to get the Week 1 start over Geno Smith, but Sanchez won’t make it through the first month of the regular season unless he improves significantly.

30. Christian Ponder, Minnesota Vikings- Prev Rank: 28

Christian Ponder is the new Mark Sanchez.  He has a pretty good supporting cast and a strong defense to rely on and as a result the Vikings are a wildcard team in the playoffs.  Sanchez played well in those games early in his career, whereas Ponder was injured and missed his chance to shine.  If the Vikings regress this year after drafting 3 players in the first round, it will fall on Ponder’s shoulders and he’ll be replaced in 2014.

31. Brandon Weeden, Cleveland Browns- Prev Rank: 29

Weeden looks like a dud, not that anyone who doesn’t support “drafting 28 year-old QBs who played in a pass-friendly system in college” is surprised.  It’s really too bad because outside of the QB position I think the Browns were a pretty decent team last year (certainly better than Pittsburgh) and now they’re stuck with another year of Weeden because they hated all the QBs in the 2013 draft class.

Group 11- The Liabilities

32. Blaine Gabbert, Jacksonville Jaguars- Prev Rank: Unranked

Blaine Gabbert is a flat out charity case at the Quarterback position.  He has zero pocket presence, no control of his huddle, and has been accused of being a whiner and an excuse maker.  I have no personal vendettas against Gabbert but he’s clearly the worst projected starter in the NFL right now, and the reason why the Jags are early favorites for the #1 pick in the 2014 draft.

Notable Backups: Drew Stanton, Nick Foles, Matt Barkley, Ryan Mallett and Geno Smith would be in Group 9, Matt Cassel, Terrelle Pryor, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jason Campbell, Tarvaris Jackson and Kevin Kolb in Group 10, Chad Henne in Group 11