1. Kansas City Chiefs- Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M- 4/20 Update: According to a coupe of sources, the Chiefs have locked in on Luke Joeckel as the top pick, and are now trying to facilitate a trade for their franchised LT Brandon Albert. Not everyone has picked up on this development but I trust it as much as I trusted the source that broke the Alex Smith trade with the Chiefs a couple days early.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars- Shariff Floyd, DT, Florida- 4/21 Update: The hot rumor in draft circles Sunday was that the Jags were looking at Left Tackle more than adding a defensive player or Geno Smith. I don't buy it because I think it's just a smokescreen to get a team that really wants Eric Fisher to trade up. The Raiders leaked out interest in a LT a few days ago, but everyone knows they really want to move down and re-coup the second round pick they lost in the Carson Palmer trade. Sources say the Raiders wanted the Cardinals to move up from the 7th spot because they want to stay in the Top 7. I think the Jags were just trying to capitalize on those rumors by indicating interest in Fisher to make them the team to move down if someone wanted to move up. The Jags need an impact defensive player and they know the depth at the top end of this draft is on D, so they'd love to move down if they could get a good haul of picks for it.
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The 20-year-old Floyd (right) is somewhere in the Top 3 in just about every mock draft out there right now. He's a dynamic interior rusher and has a very high ceiling. I thought about penciling in Dee Milliner here, but I think Gus Bradley will feel he can develop bigger, raw corners in later rounds like he did in Seattle. The Jags need a lot of pass rushing help and I think Floyd (right) is rated higher than any of the DE/OLB types on their board. Defensive Tackle is also a bigger need, despite what experts will tell you about Dion Jordan and the Leo position in Gus Bradley's defense. Jason Babin, Jeremy Mincey, and 2012 second round pick Andre Branch represent a decent group of ends.
3. Oakland Raiders- Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah- Obviously, the Raiders would love to move down, but I don't think they'll get much of a market for this pick. It's going to take too much for Miami or San Diego to move up to this spot and the Cardinals probably aren't moving up at all. They're likely stuck.
The Raiders have the worst roster in the NFL, and their defensive line is in shambles. Dee Milliner or Dion Jordan could get looks here, but I think DT is a more pressing need, and Lotulelei is the top player available at this point that makes sense. I even prefer him to Shariff Floyd. His heart issues are all cleared up at this point.
4. Philadelphia Eagles- Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma- I remember back in 2010 I had Russell Okung as the top Left Tackle prospect, as many other people did. But at #4 the Redskins picked Trent Williams over Okung because the former had quicker feet and was a perfect fit in their zone blocking scheme. History could repeat itself in 2013 with another Sooner. Lane Johnson isn’t rated higher than Eric Fisher on most boards (he is on mine) but he is the fastest tackle in years and seems perfect for chip Kelly’s offense.
4/19 Update: A reliable Eagles source has said this pick comes down to Eric Fisher Luke Joeckel, Star Lotulelei, or Dion Jordan. I'm sticking with Johnson here because Chip Kelly reportedly loves him and probably leaked those 4 names to try and move down a spot or two to select Johnson. Or I'm completely wrong on my theory that the fasted offense will want the fastest tackle. Either or.
5. Detroit Lions- Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama- The Lions will look at a Left Tackle here for sure, but Milliner would also fill a huge need and the Lions have been smitten with him throughout the draft process. I think they take Milliner and hope Riley Reiff cuts it at Left Tackle. They won't give up on him after one season, will they?
4/22 Update: I've seen Milliner everywhere. Mel Kiper had Detroit moving up to #1 for him, I've seen mocks with him going to OAK at 3, Detroit here, Cleveland at 6, and as far down as Tennessee at 10 and New York at 13. His stock is very confusing. I'm sticking with him here but Fisher and Ezekiel Ansah are major possibilities as well.
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6. TRADE! Miami Dolphins- Eric Fisher (right), OT, Central Michigan- The Dolphins spent crazy money in Free Agency but still need to replace Jake Long at Left Tackle. With two second round picks, they have the "ammunition", as GM Jeff Ireland called it, to move up if the right guy falls. The Browns are without a second rounder after using theirs in the supplemental draft on WR Josh Gordon, and would happily move down to recoup one. A win-win.
7. Arizona Cardinals- Dion Jordan, OLB, Oregon- The Cardinals don't get their Left Tackle to fall to them, but they do have Jordan, the consensus top 3-4 OLB in this class. The high-upside linebacker would add some much needed pass rush to a defense that already has a cornerstone on the line (DE Calais Campbell) and in the secondary (CB Patrick Peterson).
8. Buffalo Bills- Ryan Nassib, QB, Syracuse- 4/22 Note: I linked the Bills to Nassib at 8 in my column on QBs on the move this offseason. I also had Buffalo trading back into Round 1 for him in my last update. I have him at 8 now because all signs point to him being the pick here if the Bills can't move down. A Bills beat writer picked him over Geno Smith in a beat writer mock in the LA Times, and Nassib is viewed as a better bad-weather QB than Smith. It doesn't make sense to see him here, but teams reach for QBs all the time and it's a perfect match coaching-wise.
9. New York Jets- Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU- 4/22 Note: Rex Ryan reportedly loves Mingo, which is why I tabbed him here over Ezekiel Ansah. The Jets need a pass rusher for their 3-4 and Mingo is considered the favorite to be the the 9th pick.
10. Tennessee Titans- Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU- I'm straying away from Jon Cooper here because the Titans have shown in the past that they'll take the best player on their board even if it only fills a minor need and there is a solution to a more pressing need available. For instance, last year they picked Kendall Wright over David Decastro even thought they needed a Guard then and WR was only a minor need. Defensive End isn't a huge need in Tennessee, as they need depth more than a starter, but Ansah would be too good to pass up here.
11. San Diego Chargers- Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia- The Chargers seem infatuated with Lane Johnson, and would likely try to move up to 6 for him if he's available. In this mock there's no Left Tackle left for them here, so they go an alternate route to help Phillip Rivers. Austin is an electric play-maker who can be used in the slot or backfield, and new coach Mike McCoy could use him to get the ball out of Rivers' hands before the pass rush gets to him. McCoy is an incredible offensive mind who designed the Tebow offense in Denver, so the mind can only imagine what he could do with a player like Austin.
12. TRADE! Cleveland Browns- Jon Cooper, OG/C, North Carolina- The Browns need interior OL help, and I've heard Cooper is the fallback option of a lot of teams picking in the Top 6. The Browns are able to get him at 12 after trading down. As inferior players like Nassib and Mingo infiltrate the Top 10, value picks like Cooper emerge later in the teens.
13. New York Jets (from TB)- Kenny Vaccaro, FS, Texas- Vaccaro is the top Safety in this draft and as a result is being a bit over-valued. The Jets are said to like Tavon Austin but if he isn't here it's expected that they'd go Defense again even after using the 9th pick on that side of the ball. I think they see Safety as a bigger need than Corner even after the Revis trade.
14. Carolina Panthers- Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri- DT is a major need in Carolina and Richardson is quietly in everyone's Top 16 players and mocks that I see. He excels as a pass rusher in a 4-3 and it makes a lot of sense for the Panthers to target him with this pick.
15. New Orleans Saints- Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida St.- Rhodes (below) appears to be the consensus second corner in the draft, and the Saints are reportedly considering him if he makes it to this pick. Keenan Lewis came over in Free Agency from Pittsburgh but the Saints are looking to stockpile CBs to try and match up with the receivers the division champion Falcons possess.
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16. St. Louis Rams- D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama- The Rams need a Right Tackle opposite Jake Long, because Roger Saffold refuses to play there. In this situation, the Rams can add the top RT prospect in this draft at a decent spot value wise, and then look to move Saffold for a pick in the second round (San Diego, perhaps). While Guard Chance Warmack makes sense here I've heard Fluker is actually projected to go higher than his Alabama teammate in many scout's circles because Fluker's upside is enticing and Warmack is viewed as "too one dimensional" by some scouts.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers- Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia- Jones worked out poorly, as expected, and some analysts are suggesting he might fall out of the first round. I think that’s heinous. How can the most disruptive defensive player in college football from a year ago not go in the first round?! The Steelers are smart, they’ll value Jones’ tape over his workout numbers, and they’ll get a solid pass rusher to replace James Harrison.
18. Dallas Cowboys- Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama- Every year we see elite players fall because they play an undervalued position. Last year it was Guard David Decastro falling to the Steelers at 24. This year it could be another Guard if Cooper or Warmack fall out of the top half of the first round. The Cowboys are said to prefer Jon Cooper but at 18 they'll take what they can get and land a major steal in Warmack.
19. New York Giants- Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida St.- The Giants need a pass rusher with Osi Umenyiora now in Atlanta. Werner is a prototype Left End who would be a colossal steal at this juncture. He is a terrific pass rusher and stops the run well.
20. Chicago Bears- Alec Ogletree, ILB, Georgia- Brian Urlacher is gone, and even if he comes back for the veteran minimum the Bears have to be thinking about a replacement. Ogletree (below) is a blockhead that has made numerous poor personal decisions, but his talent is undeniable and he’s likely to be the first inside Linebacker off the board.
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21. Cincinnati Bengals- Menelik Watson, OT, Florida St.- The Bengals are at a standstill with Free Agent Right Tackle Andre Smith, and they'll likely look for a cheap replacement through the draft. Watson has risen up draft boards and could get reached for at this point because there is a steep drop off at the position after him.
22. St. Louis Rams (from WAS)- Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee- The Rams need to address the Wide Receiver position early in this draft, having lost Danny Amendola and Brandon Gibson from an already underwhelming group. Patterson is a raw receiver with route running and hands issues, but he's an absolute play-maker with the ball in his hands and has a big, NFL-ready body. He's a raw version of Julio Jones.
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23. Minnesota Vikings- Sylvester Williams, DT, UNC- Williams is rising up boards again and should go somewhere in the first round. The Vikings need a Defensive Tackle to pair with and soon replace Kevin Williams, who is 33.
24. Indianapolis Colts- Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington- Trufant (right) looks like the third corner on most boards and would fill a big need in Indianapolis.
25. Minnesota Vikings (from SEA)- Manti Te'o, ILB, Notre Dame- The Vikings love Manti Te'o. And they're real people (bah-boom-psh). Too soon? Anyway, Leslie Frazier wants a Middle Linebacker and Chris Speilman ate dinner with Te'o before his pro day. The love affair is apparently alive and still going strong.
26. Green Bay Packers- Margus Hunt, DE, SMU- Hunt is a physical freak and a steal at this point in the first round. He would play the 5-technique in Dom Campers’ 3-4, although I’d like to see him used outside as a pass rusher wherever he lands.
27. Houston Texans- DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson- The Texans definitely need a #2 receiver after cutting Kevin Walter. Hopkins represents a great value late in round 1, e's my top WR in the draft and a Roddy White clone.
28. Denver Broncos- Tank Carradine, DE, Florida St.- Carradine tore his ACL late lat season but is now almost fully recovered. The Broncos need to replace Elvis Dumervil, and they're rumored to love Carradine, who is rising up boards late in the draft season. He had 11 sacks last season opposite Bjoern Werner in Tallahassee.
29. TRADE! Jacksonville Jaguars- Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia- The Patriots only have 5 picks and will look to add a mid-rounder while sliding back to the Jaguars' second round slot at 33, the first pick on day 2. The Jags could be coaxed into mving up because they seem to like Geno (just not at #2) and they might be afraid someone else (Philly) will move up and take him before the 33rd pick. For the record, I think Geno is a steal outside of the Top 10 picks.
30. Atlanta Falcons- Johnthan Banks, CB, Mississippi St.- Banks is a tall, lanky corner who has man-to man skills. The Falcons secondary is weak with Dunta Robinson and Brent Grimes leaving only Asante Samuel as an established corner.
31. San Francisco 49ers- Matt Elam, FS, Florida- The 49ers can replace the departed Dashon Goldson here with Elam, the second best Safety in this draft. A solid hitter with good range, Elam figures to be a solid Safety and his experience in the SEC should make him an instant contributor.
32. Baltimore Ravens- Jonathan Cyprien, SS, Florida International- The other Safety meriting late first round discussion, Cyprien (below) would fit in next to Michael Huff as the Ravens remake their Safeties (and their whole D) from a year ago.
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