2013 NFL Free Agent Mock Draft
NFL Free Agency is set to begin March 12, and teams are already trying to figure out which players to target. I've devised a fun little Mock Draft where the teams can draft impending free agents. The teams are ordered from most cap space to least cap space (at the start of the offseason). Without furthur ado, the first NFL Free Agent Mock Draft.
1. Cincinnati Bengals- Jairus Byrd, S, Bills- Byrd is an elite Safety, and the Bengals need to improve the back end of the secondary even if they retain Nate Clements.
2. Cleveland Browns- Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens- The Browns get to take Flacco off the Ravens and replace Brandon Weeden. Too bad this isn’t real.
3. Indianapolis Colts-Ryan Clady, OT, Broncos- Andrew Luck gets the blindside protector he needs.
4. Miami Dolphins- Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs- Ryan Tannehill needs more receivers even if Brian Hartline re-signs. Bowe has some baggage but is a complete receiver.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Henry Melton, DT, Bears- Melton would give the Bucs a great interior rusher to pair with Gerald McCoy.
6. Jacksonville Jaguars-Mike Wallace, WR, Steelers- The Jags’ receiving corps is awful. Mike Wallace had a down year but should bounce back.
7. Buffalo Bills-Andy Levitre, G, Bills- The Bills opt to keep Levitre, one of the better Guards in the NFL.
8. Tennessee Titans- Dashon Goldson, S, 49ers- Goldson is an ideal complement to Michael Griffin, and could help the Titans improve a shaky secondary.
9. Seattle Seahawks- Cliff Avril, DE, Lions- Chris Clemons is replaced with Avril, a dynamic edge rusher.
10. New England Patriots- Sebastian Vollmer, OT, Patriots- Vollmer is a pure Right Tackle and the Pats need to re-sign him.
11. Denver Broncos- Jake Long, OT, Dolphins- Jake Long’s injury woes make him a risk, but the Broncos need to replace Clady if he leaves.
12. Kansas City Chiefs- Branden Albert, OT, Chiefs- The Chiefs can keep Albert in this situation and have more flexibility with the top pick. If Albert leaves, Luke Joeckel is almost a shoo-in at #1.
13. Minnesota Vikings- Greg Jennings, WR, Packers- The Vikings steal a familiar foe from the rival Packers. Even before the Percy Harvin shenanigans, WR was a big need in Minny.
14. Baltimore Ravens- Paul Kruger, OLB, Ravens- The Ravens keep Kruger on the opposite side of Terrell Suggs.
15. Chicago Bears- Andre Smith, OT, Bengals- The Bears need all the O-Line help they can get, and Andre Smith is a dominant RT.
16. Houston Texans- Wes Welker, WR, Patriots- The Texans need WR help next to Andre Johnson and turn to Welker, the game’s most productive slot receiver.
17. San Diego Chargers- William Beatty, OT, Giants- Beatty is a serviceable Left Tackle and serviceable is a huge upgrade over what Phillip Rivers has now.
18. Green Bay Packers- Randy Starks, DT, Dolphins- Starks could move to DE in a 3-4 scheme and help the Packers against the run and the pass.
19. Philadelphia Eagles- Aqib Talib, CB, Patriots- Corner is a huge need in Philly and Talib played himself into a nice payday this season.
20. Atlanta Falcons- Anthony Spencer, OLB, Cowboys- Spencer would move to DE in Atlanta’s 4-3 scheme. The Falcons need a pass rusher and Spencer is coming off his best season yet.
21. San Fransisco 49ers- Sean Smith, CB, Dolphins- The 49ers could have used a corner better than Chris Culliver in the Super Bowl. Sean Smith is a solid coverage guy.
22. St. Louis Rams- Jermon Bushrod, OT, Saints- Bushrod can play either tackle spot and is a force in the run game. The Rams could pair him with Roger Saffold.
23. Arizona Cardinals- Phil Loadholt, OT, Vikings- The Cardinals need some experienced tackles and Loadholt is a capable RT in this league.
24. Detroit Lions- Michael Johnson, DE, Bengals- Michael Johnson is a talented natural pass rusher, and Detroit could use him to replace Avril if he leaves.
25. New York Giants- Dwight Freeney, DE, Colts- The Giants Super Bowl window is still wide open and Freeny could step into Osi’s place and help them back into contention.
26. Pittsburgh Steelers-Reggie Bush, RB, Dolphins- Bush would give the Steelers a real starting caliber running back and replace some of Mike Wallace’s playmaking as a whole.
27. Carolina Panthers- Michael Bennett, DE, Bucs- The Panthers need help in a lot of places on D, and Michael Bennett has been a good pass rusher in that division.
28. Washington Redskins- Ed Reed, S, Ravens- The Redskins have holes in their secondary, and assuming RG3 comes back fine, Reed could be coaxed into them being contenders.
29. Oakland Raiders- Phillip Wheeler, OLB, Raiders- The Raiders don’t have many bright spots, but Wheeler is an up and comer that they have developed.
30. New Orleans Saints- Kenny Phillips, S, Giants- The Saints defense is abominable but Phillips is a quality safety that could help them rebuild.
31. Dallas Cowboys- Jason Jones, DT, Seahawks- Moving to a 4-3 and in need of Defensive Tackles, the Cowboys could pick up Jones as a pass rusher on the interior.
32. New York Jets- Louis Delmas, S, Lions- The Jets could stand for help at the Safety position. Delmas is an injury risk but has shown flashes of pro bowl talent.
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9. Derek Anderson, Free Agent (Panthers) - Likely to Move
Possible Destinations: Cleveland Browns
Derek Anderson has had one good season in his entire career. In 2007, he was the Cleveland Browns starter and had a solid season under offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinki. Coach Chud is now the head coach in Cleveland, and given the lack of a competent starter it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see Anderson back in orange next season, although he is unlikely to be the starter.
8. Matt Cassel, Chiefs (expected to be released) – Definitely Going to Move
Possible Destinations: New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers
Matt Cassel’s career as a starter appears to be over, and there will be rumblings about a return to holding the clipboard in New England. But I think the most likely landing spot is Pittsburgh, for a few reasons. First, Ryan Mallett is pretty much set as the #2 QB in New England, so Cassel might not make the roster. Also, Charlie Batch and Byron Leftwitch are free agents, so Pittsburgh will be in the market for a suitable backup to the mercilessly oft- pounded ben Roethlisberger. And lastly, Cassel’s best season as a starter was NOT 2008 with the Patriots, but in 2010 with the Chiefs under head coach Todd Haley, who just so happens to be the offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh.
7. Tarvaris Jackson, Free Agent (Bills) – Definitely Going to Move
Possible Destinations: New York Jets, wherever Brad Childress winds up.
Tarvaris Time has seen better moments, but he should find a job somewhere this offseason. The Jets are moving to a West-Coast Offense and T-Jack has plenty of experience in that regard. He was also new Jets GM John Idzik’s favorite’s in Seattle. Then there’s also the possibility that his #1 fan- former Vikings coach Brad Childress- will land a QB coach or OC position somewhere and bring T-Jack with him.
6. Ryan Nassib, NFL Draft Prospect (Syracuse) – Definitely Going to Move
Possible Destinations: Several, but most likely Buffalo Bills
Ryan Nassib is an intriguing prospect out of Syracuse. His college coach, Doug Marrone, just took the Bills head coaching gig, and Nassib has a very good chance to wind up being the 8th pick in the 2013 draft. It’s an eerily similar situation to the Ryan Tannehill-Mike Sherman connection from Texas A&M to the Miami Dolphins with the 8th pick last year. Both Tanehill and Nassib were/will be considered reaches at that point in the draft, but familiarity with the coach and the QB-dependent nature of the NFL means Ryan Nassib’s stock has skyrocketed.
5. Tim Tebow, Jets (likely to be released)- Definitely Going to Move
Possible Destinations- New England Patriots, Jacksonville Jaguars, Philadelphia Eagles
Tim Tebow will be taking his holiness elsewhere after failing to take off with the Jets. One possible landing spot is in New England, where Bill Belichick has also been a fan and loves sticking it to the Jets, and OC Josh McDaniels drafted Tebow when he was with the Broncos. He would likely serve a variety of roles in New England. The Jacksonville Jaguars have denied interest in Tebow but could be blowing smoke- the hometown kid would sell tickets, which is surprisingly difficult for the lowly Jags to do in the ever-popular NFL. And the most intriguing possibility is in Philadelphia, where Chip Kelly could see Tebow as the QB for his spread, read/option based system.
4. Nick Foles, Eagles- Possibly Going to Move
Possible Destinations- Kansas City Chiefs, New York Jets
Nick Foles showed flashes of competence as a rookie for the Eagles this past season, but unless Chip Kelly is going to abandon his mobile-QB staple in his offense, Foles will be taking snaps elsewhere in 2013. One possible destination is in KC, where Andy Reid is the new coach with an obvious connection to Foles. The other is in NY where new Jets OC Marty Mornhinweg (the Eagles OC last year) is instilling his WCO.
3. Matt Flynn, Seahawks (possible to be traded)- Not likely to Move
Possible Destinations- New York Jets, Jacksonville Jaguars
Matt Flynn is another WCO QB to be linked to the Jets, as well as John Idzik from his time in Seattle. The other destination could be Jacksonville, where new coach Gus Bradley was the Defensive Coordinator is Seattle and saw plenty of Flynn in practice last season. If he was impressed, maybe he’ll go after him this offseason. However, I think Flynn likely stays in Seattle because Russell Wilson isn’t counting much towards the cap and they can afford a pricey but effective backup, with no real incentive to move him unless they’re blown away by a trade offer.
2. Michael Vick, Eagles (possible to be released) – Possibly Going to Move
Possible Destinations- Kansas City Chiefs, Cleveland Browns, Arizona Cardinals
Mike Vick is an enigma and could be great or terrible in short spans for whichever team he winds up with if Chip Kelly decides he isn’t the guy for his system or he simply refuses to take a pay cut and the Eagles release him anyway. The Chiefs are a possible landing spot due to Andy Reid, and the Browns may be in the mix after Chudzinski’s success with a mobile QB in Cam Newton in Carolina. The Arizona Cardinals are the dark horse here and I think he will ultimately wind up in the desert, where new coach Bruce Arians is a Virginia Tech alum and Larry Fitzgerald would probably love anyone that isn’t John Skelton or Ryan Lindley.
1. Alex Smith, 49ers (possible to be traded) – Likely to Move
Possible Destinations- New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars
I believe Alex Smith is the hottest available QB this offseason, because he’s put together a year and a half of solid, winning football before taking a backseat to Collin Kaepernick. The Jets and Browns will obviously be looking for new QBs, but Jacksonville could be the prime landing spot for the former 1st overall pick in the draft. New Jags GM David Caldwell is a former prominent member of the 49ers front office and could see Smith as his QB to build around.
1/4/13 A Statistical Analysis of the NFL MVP Race
by Jack Andrade
This season's NFL MVP Race appears to be a two horse race between Broncos QB Peyton Manning and Vikings RB Adrian Peterson. I don't need to brief readers on the seasons these guys are having, because Mike Lucas has done a terrific job outlining the MVP race all year on this blog.
That said, I've never gotten on the Peterson bandwagon and being a cynic I've come across as a hater and someone who just likes to take unpopular opinions. In reality, it's a passing league and I can't see how a QB wouldn't be the MVP, it's by far the most important position. So, in order to be fair and objective with myself I set out to look at this season's statistics objectively and really delve into this MVP race.
My research was done on all eligible passers and runners (RBs only, sorry Cam and RG3) for the entire 2012 NFL regular season. I set out to compare Peterson and Manning against "average" players at their positions, similar to WAR (Wins Above Replacement) in baseball. To determine an average player I took the average stats of the 16th and 17th best players at each position in every major stat category for that position, then used a conversion factor to match up the pass attempts or run attempts of the fictional "average player" and the real life superstar MVP candidate. My results speak for themselves.
Adrian Peterson
Season Stats: 348 carries, 2,097 yards, 6.0 avg, 12 TD
16/17 AVG- 224.5 carries (R.Bush, Turner), 1000.5 yards (Bradshaw, R.Bush)
, 4.35 avg (Ridley, R.Bush), 6 TD (Bradshaw, Green-Ellis)
348/224.5 conversion factor- 4.35x348=1,513 yards, 348/224.5
multiplied by 6= 9.3 touchdowns.
Conclusion: Adrian Peterson’s statistical value over an average starting
running back in the NFL this season was 586 yards and 2.7 Touchdowns.
Season Stats: 4,659 yards , 7.99 ypa, 37 TD, 11 INT, on 583 attempts
16/17 AVG- 16/17 AVG- 3,337.5 yards (Dalton and
Rivers), 6.98 ypa (Cutler and Luck), 22 TD (Schaub and Flacco), 12.5 INT (Tannehill and
Schaub), 522 ATT (Rivers and Weeden)
6.98x583= 4,069 yards
583/522 conversion factor- 583/522 mltiplied by 22 and 12.5
respectively= 24.6 touchdowns, 14 interceptions
Conclusion: Peyton Manning’s statistical value over an average starting
quarterback in the NFL this season was 590 yards, 12.4 touchdowns, and 3
interceptions.
So, while both players provide a similar yardage upgrade, Manning presents a considerably better upgrade in touchdowns while also preventing 3 turnovers. Statistically speaking, it's that simple: To me, Peyton Manning is more valuable than Adrian Peterson.
But while we're on the subject, let's just check out a guy who isn't getting enough credit for the season he had, shall we?
Season Stats: 4,295 yards, 7.78 ypa, 39 TD, 8 INT, on 552 attempts
16/17 AVG- 16/17 AVG- 3,337.5 yards (Dalton and Rivers), 6.98 ypa (Cutler and Luck), 22 TD (Schaub and Flacco), 12.5 INT (Tannehill and Schaub), 522 ATT (Rivers and Weeden)
6.98x552= 3,852 yards
552/522 conversion factor- 552/522 multiplied by 22 and 12.5
respectively= 23.3 touchdwons, 13.2 interceptions.
Conclusion: Aaron Rodgers’ statistical value over an average starting
quarterback in the NFL this season was 443 yards, 15.7 touchdowns, and 5.2 interceptions.
Questions for the Peterson Fans Answered
1. C'mon man! take AP off the Vikings and they'd be terrible! Tebow took the Broncos to the playoffs last year, and Matt Flynn threw for a million yards in that one game!
JA: his is 2012 we're talking about. Graham Harrell is the Packers' backup, and if he was the starter they'd be 4-12. If Brock Osweiler (or Tim Tebow) started for the Broncos they'd be 5-11. That's a 7 or 8 game drop. a 7 or 8 game drop for the Vikings puts them at 3-13 or 2-14. I think they'd have 5 wins with Toby Gerhart as the starter at running back. I think AP's stats are the most outstanding, and therefore he should be Offensive Player of the Year. But the MVP is for QBs, sorry.
2. Yeah, but teams put 8 in the box and Peterson still gets a ton of yards!
JA: Yes, and it's not like other teams aren't game-planning for Manning or Rodgers just as much. They face blitzes and complex coverages just like Peterson faces an 8 man front. All 3 are unbelievable players and that's why they're MVP candidates. And yes Christian Ponder sucks but is he worse as a QB than Ryan Grant or Knowshon Moreno are as RBs? All three are doing it by themselves.
3. Those yardage bonuses are bogus! Peterson averages 1.65 more yards per carry than the "average" RB and the QBs only average 1.01 (Manning) and 0.8 (Rodgers) more yards per attempt than the "average" QB!
JA: Thanks for reading my article! I thought you just skipped down here to call me an idiot. And yes, Peterson does have a bigger advantage but the difference is that he ran the ball 348 times and those guys threw the ball over 550 times, because it's a passing league and QBs are more valuable as a result. So a 1.01 advantage on 583 pass attemps was 4 yards more valuable than the 1.65 edge on 348 rush attempts.
4. Peterson was 9 yards away from the record! that alone is MVP worthy!
JA: You're talking to a guy that didn't vote for Miguel Cabrera for MVP after he won the triple crown!
5. You didn't love QBs this much when you said Manti Te'o deserved the Heisman over Johnny Manziel!
JA: Gosh, you read all my stuff, I'm flattered. Difference is the Heisman goes to college football's "Most Outstanding Player" not its most valuable. The V in MVP stands for Quarterback. And also, like those who supported Manziel, I don't blame them at all and he was a very worthy winner, as are Peterson and Manning. I'm just showing how I concluded Rodgers was the MVP, everyone's opinion is different and I think Lucas' reasoning makes sense for why he ordered the top 3 differently from me. I'm just a stats guy and presenting my findings. And Lucas' ballot is right below for another perspective (and a more AP-friendly one too).
1/4/13 Mike Lucas's MVP Watch
Each week Mike Lucas will update everyone on the NFL MVP Race.
Final 2012 Ballot
1. Adrian Peterson – I had to do it. I had to. Totally split
between AD and Peyton but I could overlook how much more dominant AD was then
any other running back in the league, and how bad the Vikings could have been
without Peterson. Peterson finished with 2,097 yards and 12 TDs, 484 more then
any other back in the league. He made Christian Ponder look like a good
quarterback. He single handedly carried a team that no one saw being any good
into the playoffs.
1A. Peyton Manning – Coming off season ending neck surgery a
year ago, people could have imagined Peyton coming back and being successful,
but did any see this coming? 4,659 yards, 37 touchdowns and only 11
interceptions? That is absurd. Peyton
turned around a team which last year had arguably the worst passing offense in
the history of the NFL led by Tim Tebow, into a dominant passing attack. I have
him slotted behind Peterson, but it is by the slightest margin imaginable.
3. Aaron Rodgers – After a slow start to the season, which was
aided by the replacement referees “Fail Mary” call, Rodgers has been
outstanding. Rodgers finished the season with the 2nd most TD passes
in the league (39), only behind Drew Brees, and only 8 interceptions. That 5 to
1 TD to interception rate is the highest in the league. Rodgers also put these
numbers up behind a shaky offensive line, no running game, and one of his
favorite receivers (Greg Jennings) injured most of the year.
4. Tom Brady – What more can you say about Tom Brady? He just
finished the season with a casual 34 touchdowns and nearly 5,000 yards. He put
up numbers like this even with the emergence of a running game from the likes
of Steven Ridley. He’s almost not human.
5. Russell Wilson – I have been more impressed with Russell
Wilson this year then any other rookie quarterback I’ve seen. He plays with
such poise, and always seems to make the right decisions. His 26 touchdowns to
only 10 interceptions aren’t too shabby either. He has been as valuable to his
team as just about anyone in this league. I would not want to have to play
Russell Wilson or the Seahawks in the playoffs, that’s for sure.
12/30 Jack's QB Rankings
Ranking the QBs- It’s something
everyone is doing. So why not give it a
shot, I thought. Before we begin, let’s
review a few guidelines.
-Winning matters but isn’t the
defining factor: No, Eli Manning is not
better Than Tom Brady. Matt Schaub is not
better than Drew Brees. Record matters,
but a QB is judged on winning championships (elite QBs do) and making the
playoffs only gets you so far. It’s
still a team game.
-Stats are listed but rarely talked
about by me: I’m not going to rank them
according to QBR or anything stupid.
Obviously those numbers are there to help us judge, not to be the
judge. I use my eyes and my brain, then
look at the numbers to settle some close calls.
-QBs are grouped together with
their peers: It’s fun and helpful. Also, I'm only listing starters/primary starters. Backups are at the bottom for all you Jason Campbell fans out there.
-Don’t forget 1-32 isn’t that
concrete: Players move up and down
marginally all the time. This is a rough
sketch, so to speak. If Joe Flacco wins
the Super Bowl obviously he’s going to vault higher up in the rankings. Not that he’s going to win the Super
Bowl. Also, there is a pretty big gap
between some numbers (for example, 7, 8, 9, and 10 are all pretty far apart,
but some are grouped together for simplicity, whereas 14-19 are remarkable
close and I change my mind about how to order them every 5 minutes).
With that, let's begin.
Group 1- Cream of the Crop
1. Aaron Rodgers- 67.0 comp. %, 3,930
yards, 7.68 ypa, 35 TD, 8 INT, 106.2 rating, 72.6 QBR
2. Tom Brady- 63.1 comp. %, 4,543
yards, 7.56 ypa, 32 TD, 8 INT, 98.3 rating, 77.5 QBR
Brady is the old geezer at 35 who
is trying to stay elite long enough to win a fourth Super Bowl and cement
himself as the greatest of all time.
Rodgers is 29, in the middle of his prime, and should be the MVP this
year even though Peyton Manning will win because of his neck thing (remember,
Rodgers would be 13-3 if not for the replacement refs in Seattle). He’s the best on-the-run thrower in the
league, as well as the most accurate, and possesses mobility Brady can only
dream of. Meanwhile, the old man has a
competitive fire unlike any other QB in the league, and his winning habits
speak for themselves. It’s close, but I
give Rodgers a slight edge. Here’s to
hoping we get to see them square off in a Super Bowl before all is said and
done.
Group 2- The Mannings
3. Peyton Manning- 68.1 comp. %,
4,355 yards, 7.86 ypa, 34 TD, 11 INT, 103.7 rating, 82.7 QBR
Not in the top group because he hasn’t
beaten much of anyone yet. I don’t count
the win in Baltimore, Charlie Batch won in Baltimore and the Ravens are not
very good this year. If he beats Brady
in round 2 of the playoffs in Denver, now we’re talking about a guy who could
get all the way to #1. I don’t know,
maybe he fits in group 1, but I would still much rather have Brady if I’m going
with the old QB running on smarts and guts, and it’s way too fun to put him and
Eli together. So for now, group 2.
4. Eli Manning- 59.8 comp. %, 3,740
yards, 7.26 ypa, 21 TD, 15 INT, 83.6 rating, 65.1 QBR
He’s got two rings. That alone is elite material. Once can be an accident. Looking at you, Trent Dilfer, waving that
thing at the camera every chance you get.
Twice is legit. And he ranks 4th
because there’s no way in hell a healthy Rodgers, Brady, or Peyton miss the
playoffs.
Group 3- Elite #Coachprobs
5. Drew Brees- 62.7 comp. %, 4,781
yards, 7.63 ypa, 39 TD, 18 INT, 94.9 rating, 67.3 QBR
It’s been a long year for Drew
Brees, from his tumultuous contract extension talk this offseason through week
17 of a non-playoff year in New Orleans.
All of a sudden there are whispers that he’s past his prime, and he
forces throws like Brett Favre in his twilight, but I’m slotting him here in
the Top 5 as an elite guy still. Sean
Payton’s absence was devastating, as Jimmy Graham hasn’t been utilized, nor has
Devery Henderson, and the Saints offense slipped just enough that their
defense, one of the worst in football, was exposed and destroyed. I think next year will be a bounce back with
Payton back behind the wheel of the Ferrari.
6. Ben Roethlisberger- 63.1 comp. %,
3,131 yards, 7.35 ypa, 23 TD, 8 INT, 95.5 rating, 61.3 QBR
Roethlisberger battled injuries
and an offensive coordinator he hates (Todd Haley) to a solid year but missed
the playoffs. Pittsburgh is lucky he’s
one of the toughest players in the league because it can’ be easy playing
behind that awful line. With a clean
bill of health, a healthy David Decastro, and hopefully a new OC, look for Big
Ben to lead Pittsburgh back to the playoffs next year.
Group 4- One Step Away
7. Matt Ryan- 69.0 comp. %, 4,481
yards, 7.85 ypa, 31 TD, 14 INT, 100.2 rating, 76.7 QBR
Matt Ryan takes a lot of flack, and
I get it. He’s never won a playoff
game. He’s 0-3, and he’s lost to a pair
of eventual Super Bowl Champions. He has
the best receiver combination in the league as well as an all-world tight
end. But consider that he’s 27, and at
27 Aaron Rodgers threw 28 TDs with 11 INTs and had an 0-1 playoff record before
winning the Super Bowl. At 27 Drew Brees
had 26 and 11 and a playoff record of 0-1, before losing in the second
round. And Peyton freaking Manning had 27 and 19 at
age 27, and his playoff record was 0-2, and he lost in the first round that
year. Now take a second peek at Matty
Ice’s stats from this year. There you
go. He’ young, he’s damn good, and it’s
only a matter of time before he starts winning playoff games. He’s been a clutch fourth quarter guy since
his college days.
8. Andrew Luck- 54.3 comp. %, 4, 183
yards, 6.98 ypa, 21 TD, 18 INT, 75.6 rating, 64.6 QBR
The best rookie QB in NFL
history. Yes, he has a low completion
percentage and more picks than Wilson and griffin combined. Yet he’s asked to do more in the pocket than
both of them combined. He runs no
huddle, reads coverage like the Stanford genius he is, leads his team despite
being a rookie with a depleted coaching staff (Chuckstrong) and he’s going to
the playoffs. Consider that his best
running back is Vick Ballard, and other than Reggie Wayne none of his receivers
had had even one productive season in the league before this year (Donnie Avery
and a bunch of rookies). And yet, albeit
with a bad line, Luck drops back 45 times a game and has to find someone to
throw to (or run for his life). He took
a 2-14 team and made them 10-5 (with a week to go) even though they didn’t have
any major free agent signings or anything.
An 8 or 9 win turnaround simply because of Luck? There’s a lot of skill in that.
Group 5- RG3
9. Robert Griffin III- 66.4 comp. %,
3,100 yards, 8.27 ypa, 20 TD, 5 INT, 104.1 rating, 71.1 QBR
RG3 gets his own group. Not because he’s the best QB ever in ESPN’s
eyes, but because there’s really no one like him. I think he’s a bit better than Stafford, but not
as good as Luck. The good things about
RG3: He’s the best runner of any QB in the league, he’s accurate as hell, his
arm strength is solid, he has all the intangibles, he’s the most marketable
athlete since Tiger Woods (just watch) and he’s a winner. The bad: He runs an offense that has 4 basic
plays (read option, halfback dive, swing pass, and home run pass) that doesn’t
force him to read much coverage (like in college) which means we still don’t
know what happens if the 4-play offense doesn’t work and he has to look at more
than one or two receivers on a given play 40 times a game; and also he takes
nasty hits and no one knows if his body can hold up. There’s no denying he’s elite, but the top 8
guys are all much better in a conventional drop-back, look at the coverage, and
throw sense than he is, yet none of them could run the 4-play offense (and none
of them would want to anyway). He’s in a
league of his own.
Group 6- The Enigmas
10. Matthew Stafford- 60.0 comp. %,
4,695 yards, 6.85 ypa, 17 TD, 16 INT, 79.2 rating, 58.8 QBR
Now before I get dismissed for
putting a 4-11 QB in my Top 10 hear me out.
I think Stafford is the best of the enigmas. My logic being that there is no one on the
planet that can watch him play and not love his game. He’s chunky, he loves throwing sidearm for no
reason (yet makes one incredibly necessary sidearm completion a game), he takes
hits behind a bad line and gets up, pulls the grass out of his facemask and
does it again. He has the best receiver
maybe ever and other than that his supporting cast is pretty weak. And even though he’s stuck on a bad team he’s
never the reason the Lions lose. His
numbers are down this year, but put Stafford on any playoff team from group 7
and that team just got a whole lot scarier offensively. If you put a young Brett Favre on one of the
worst franchises in the league he would have been Matt Stafford. And he isn’t a punch line like the next two
guys.
11. Jay Cutler- 58.8 comp. %, 2,776
yards, 6.89 ypa, 18 TD, 14 INT, 80.2 rating, 50.0 QBR
12. Tony Romo- 66.3 comp. %, 4,685
yards, 7.67 ypa, 26 TD, 16 INT, 92.5 rating, 64.9 QBR
Romo and Cutler, linked in my mind
pretty much forever, so different but so similar. Cutler is the sulking, irritable enigma that
Chicago fans hate when he plays, but absolutely adore when he’s hurt and they
see what life is like without him. Romo
is the happy-go-lucky choke artist who only Dallas fans seem to support. Both are marred by an inability to win
important games, but on most Sunday’s they look like they should be 2 or 3
groups higher. It’s those ill-timed bad
games that make them enigmas.
13. Cam Newton-58.4 comp. %, 3,621
yards, 8.01 ypa, 19 TD, 11 INT, 88.0 rating, 54.8 QBR
An enigma because he can be so
good and so bad at the same time. It
doesn’t help that he has a bunch of overpaid running backs and one quality
receiver around him, and also Ron Rivera, but Superman is definitely not a game
manager, nor is he elite or RG3. So he
is an enigma, and based off his 12 career wins in 2 seasons and sporadic
intangibles at best, he’s at the bottom of the group.
Group 7- "Elite" game managers
14. Matt Schaub- 64.2 comp. %, 3,733
yards, 7.35 ypa, 22 TD, 10 INT, 92.4 rating, 64.8 QBR
Matt Schaub was humiliated by Tom
Brady on Sunday Night Football a few weeks back, when ESPN made one last
attempt to convince people Schaub was an elite QB simply based on his
record. Well, you and I could hand it to
Arian Foster and throw to Andre Johnson with that defense and finish ahead of
Tennessee and Jacksonville, so there’s that.
Schaub will take the Texans as far as they can go until he has to win a
game for them. Then they’ll lose. Just like everyone else in this group. But at least Schaub can hold claim as the
best bald QB in the league.
15. Russell Wilson- 63.4 comp. %,
2,868 yards, 7.67 ypa, 25 TD, 10 INT, 98.0 rating, 70.0 QBR
Close to approaching cult status
is Seattle’s short, weak-armed QB with terrific numbers, Russell Wilson. Wilson has a fantastic running game and
defense, not to mention a pretty darn good O-line, and has play-actioned and
scrambled his way to making people believe he’s as good as Luck and
Griffin. More power to him. Just know that if he were on the Colts he
would be 5-11 this year. He’s a game
manager, but a damned good one.
16. Andy Dalton- 62.2 comp. %, 3,591
yards, 7.00 ypa, 26 TD, 16 INT, 87.0 rating, 51.4 QBR
Andy Dalton is a great bad
quarterback on a great bad team. He fits
Cinci perfectly, as he is the 6 seed of QBs and they’ve gone to back to back
playoffs as a sixth seed. A.J. Green
helps.
17. Collin Kaepernick- 63.2 comp. %, 1,538
yards, 8.10 ypa, 8 TD, 3 INT, 95.9 rating, 76.1 QBR
The hardest player to slot due to
his small sample size, I place Kaepernick here because I think Alex Smith would
be at the bottom of the Elite Game Managers Group, but I also think he has
shown enough that he should be a bit higher than Smith in the ranks. If I were the Bucs I’d trade Freeman for
him. If I were Baltimore I’d trade
Flacco for him. Everyone above him? No, but if he goes on to win the Super Bowl
he’ll be much higher on this list in another month and change.
18. Joe Flacco- 59.8 comp. %, 3,783
yards, 7.23 ypa, 22 TD, 10 INT, 88.2 rating, 47.8 QBR
It looks like Joe Flacco should
have signed an extension this past offseason.
He’s demonstrated yet again that he can’t carry an offense, and the
Ravens are a couple weeks away from losing another playoff game with Flacco at
the helm. It’s nice that he gets there
every year, but at some point the Ravens are going to get tired of the same old
story.
19. Josh Freeman- 54.9 comp. %, 3,843
yards, 7.35 ypa, 26 TD, 16 INT, 82.3 rating, 51.5 QBR
He was great in 2010, awful in
2011, and great in 2012. I don’t trust
Josh Freeman and until he has 2 good years in a row he can’t be anything more
than a middle of the road QB.
Group 7.5- How many games he won
this year
20. Sam Bradford- 59.5 comp. %, 3,450
yards, 6.78 ypa, 20 TD, 12 INT, 83.2 rating, 49.7 QBR
I like Sam Bradford better than
the gunslingers below him because he seems to have a pretty good head on his
shoulders to go with a competent arm.
But I’ve never seen him as a true franchise QB and I was right last year
when I said the Rams should have traded him to Cleveland for the 22nd
pick (which Cleveland would do because Bradford is better than Weeden) and just
taken RG3 at number 2 instead of trading down and getting a bunch of draft picks
from the Redskins.
Group 8- “Gunslingers”
21. Phillip Rivers- 63.7 comp. %,
3,455 yards, 6.78 ypa, 24 TD, 15 INT, 86.8 rating, 39.3 QBR
Remember when Rivers was thought
of as the best QB from the 2004 draft class, even after Roethlisberger and
Manning had their first rings? Well, one
far too lengthy Norv Turner coaching reign later, here we are, Rivers being
second only to Sanchez in turnovers over the past 2 seasons.
22. Carson Palmer- 61.1 comp. %, 4,018
yards, 7.11 ypa, 22 TD, 14 INT, 85.3 rating, 44.7 QBR
In a sense, Carson Palmer was the
original Phillip Rivers, even down to the ACL injuries they sustained early in
their careers (though neither was particularly responsible for their
collapse. Palmer was a much prettier
mechanical guy than Rivers, but both were young QBs in dynamic offenses that
were poised to take over the AFC, only to fail and slowly crumble into
mediocre, turnover-prone gunslingers.
23. Ryan Fitzpatrick- 61.4 comp. %,
3,175 yards, 6.63 ypa, 23 TD, 16 INT, 82.9 rating, 45.1 QBR
Fitzpatrick has similar numbers to
the guys in this group but was never as good as Rivers or Palmer, and thus is
the only one who is in danger of losing his starting job.
Group 9- Young with upside
24. Ryan Tannehill- 58.4 comp. %, 3059
yards, 6.81 ypa, 12 TD, 12 INT, 76.9 rating, 53.7 QBR
Tannehill is getting lots of love
but I’m not sold on him yet. He hasn’t
exactly set the world on fire statistically and his team isn’t significantly
better than they were last year, which is something Luck, Griffin, and Wilson
can all lay claim to. I’m actually
impressed he has been as solid as he has, but then again, he needs to take 2 or
3 more steps in order to be a franchise QB.
25. Jake Locker- 56.2 comp. %, 2,024
yards, 6.77ypa, 10 TD, 11 INT, 72.9 rating, 49.2 QBR
Locker has struggled this year as
a bad shoulder has made him timid in the pocket, and his accuracy has been as
bad as advertised as a result. Will he
overcome the shoulder like Matthew Stafford or will he descend into suckitude
like the guys below him? Next year is a
big one for Locker.
26. Nick Foles- 60.8 comp. %, 1,699
yards, 6.41 ypa, 6 TD, 5 INT, 79.5 rating, 45.3 QBR
I’m pretty sure Nick Foles sucks,
but I know for a fact that everyone below him sucks, so this is where he gets
slotted. I’d rather have Locker or
Tannehill as they’re both more mobile and have shown flashes of competence.
Group 10- Only if you’re desperate
27. Mark Sanchez- 54.8 comp. %, 2,678 yards, 6.41 ypa, 13 TD, 17 INT, 67.9 rating, 25.0
QBR
We have a pretty good idea of what
Mark Sanchez is at this point. He’s the
same player he was in his rookie year, as his lack of improvement coupled with
a severe drop-off in supporting cast has all but sealed his fate as a starting
QB in the league.
28. Christian Ponder- 62.4 comp. %,
2,701 yards, 5.94 ypa, 15 TD, 12 INT, 78.8 rating, 47.8 QBR
Christian Ponder is the new Mark
Sanchez. He has a pretty good supporting
cast and a strong defense to rely on and as a result the Vikings could be a
wildcard team this year through no fault of his. The difference was Sanchez went to a pair of
conference title games, and Ponder hasn’t demonstrated that ability to not suck
for a few important weeks.
29. Brandon Weeden- 57.4 comp. %,
3,385 yards, 6.55 ypa, 14 TD, 17 INT, 72.6 rating, 26.6 QBR
Weeden looks like a dud, not that
anyone who doesn’t support “drafting 28 year-old QBs who played in a pass-friendly
system in college” is surprised. It’s
really too bad because outside of the QB position I think the Browns were a
pretty decent team this year (certainly better than Pittsburgh) and now they’re
stuck with another year of Weeden because this upcoming draft isn’t very good
as far as franchise QBs are concerned.
Group 11- The Liabilities
Chad Henne- 52.8 comp. %, 1,786
yards, 6.69 ypa, 9 TD, 8 INT, 72.7 rating, 29.7 QBR
Chad Henne is the classic example
of how few good quarterbacks we have on this earth. This guy started for 4 years for one of the
best college football programs in the nation, was drafted in the second round,
and has amounted to nothing in the NFL.
I have nothing bad to say about Henne except that he just isn’t very
talented, and can’t be started by an NFL team that expects to win many games.
31. Brady Quinn- 58.0 comp. %, 1,092
yards, 6.03 ypa, 2 TDs, 8 INT, 60.8 rating, 29.1 QBR
Brady Quinn and Chad Henne did
battle for years in college at Notre Dame and Michigan, and they took their rivalry
to the next level- just not for any good reasons. Quinn comes in at #31 due to a staggering TD
to INT ratio, but easily clears the last place finisher on this list.
32. Cardinals QBs John Skelton and
Ryan Lindley –(combined stats) 53.2 comp. %, 1,884 yards, 2 TD, 16 INT, 51.4
rating, 13.9 QBR (Skelton), 9.8 QBR (Lindley)
These two have occupied the
Cardinals starting job for most of the season, and it’s curious as to why
either of them are on an active NFL roster.
Neither of them will ever start another game after this season. I just can’t see either being employed in the
NFL after such putrid performances.
***For notable backup/injured QBs,
Alex Smith would be in Group 7, Mike Vick in Group 8, Kevin Kolb and Matt Flynn
in Group 9, Matt Moore, T.J. Yates, Shaun Hill, Kirk Cousins, Jason Campbell, Matt
Cassell, Terrelle Pryor, Tim Tebow in Group 10, and Blaine Gabbert and Colt
McCoy in Group 11.
12/29 Week 17 NFL Picks (Home Team in CAPS)
Bucs +3.5 vs. FALCONS
Jets +3.5 vs. BILLS
Ravens +2.5 vs. BENGALS
Bears -3.5 vs. LIONS
Jaguars +4.5 vs. TITANS
COLTS +3.5 vs. Texans
SAINTS -4.5 vs. Panthers
Eagles +7.5 vs. GIANTS
Browns +6.5 vs. STEELERS
Chiefs +15.5 vs. BRONCOS
Packers -3.5 vs. VIKINGS
Dolphins +10.5 vs. PATRIOTS
Raiders +4.5 vs. CHARGERS
49ERS -14.5 vs. Cardinals
SEAHAWKS -10.5 vs. Rams
REDSKINS -3.5 vs. Cowboys
Last Week: 10-6
Season: 119-121
12/21 Week 16 NFL Picks (Home Team in CAPS)
Falcons -3.5 vs. LIONS
COWBOYS -3.5 vs. Saints
PACKERS -12.5 vs. Titans
Colts -6.5 vs. CHIEFS
DOLPHINS -4.5 vs. Bills
JETS -2.5 vs. Chargers
Redskins -4.5 vs. EAGLES
Bengals +4.5 vs. STEELERS
Rams +3.5 vs. BUCCANEERS
Raiders +8.5 vs. PANTHERS
Patriots -14.5 vs. JAGUARS
TEXANS -7.5 vs. Vikings
Browns +13.5 vs. BRONCOS
Bears -5.5 vs. CARDINALS
RAVENS +2.5 vs. Giants
SEAHAWKS +1.5 vs. 49ers
Last Week: 8-8
Season: 109-115
12/19 Mike Lucas's MVP Watch
Each week Mike Lucas will update everyone on the NFL MVP Race.
After Week 15
 |
| Phoyo Rights to startribune.com |
1. Adrian Peterson – OK, I finally
have to do this. The award’s name is most VALUABLE player. Take Brady or
Manning off their respective teams, and there still decent football teams, even
potential playoff teams (Tebow brought this same Broncos roster to the playoffs
last season). Take Peterson (right) off the Vikings and they are one of the worst teams
in the league. Teams put 10 in the box every play pretty much to stop AD and
still can’t. He has 433 more rushing yards then anyone else in the league and
is on pace to set the single season rushing yards record. If that’s not MVP
stuff, nothing is.
2. Peyton Manning – After my last
argument for Peterson, Manning has been extremely valuable to the Broncos as
well. He has turned them from a 8-8 team a season ago to a team you can argue
is the best in the NFL. His numbers aren’t to shabby either, with 31 TDs and
over 4,000 yards.
3. Tom Brady – Brady had an
uncharacteristically bad game this past week against the 49ers. In this bad
game, he threw for 443 yards..so bad. He had 1 touchdown and 2 picks, but then
again, no one has good games against the 49ers defense. He still has thrown 30
touchdowns this year.
4. Aaron Rodgers – After a slow start
to the season, Rodgers might be hottest QB in the league right now. His numbers
are absurd, 32 TDs-8 INTs. WOW.
5. J.J. Watt – Watt takes Aldon
Smith’s spot on my list after his dominating 3-sack performance against the
Colts this week to single handedly clinch the AFC South. I give the edge to
Watt over Smith because he has more tackles then Smith, and 10 more pass
defended at the line of scrimmage. Both have 19.5 sacks. Cant go wrong with either however.
12/15 Week 15 NFL Picks (Home Team in CAPS)
Bengals -3.5 vs. EAGLES
Giants +1.5 vs. FALCONS
BEARS +2.5 vs. Packers
Redskins +1.5 vs. BROWNS
RAMS -2.5 vs. Vikings
DOLPHINS -7.5 vs. Jaguars
Buccaneers +3.5 vs. SAINTS
RAVENS +2.5 vs. Broncos
TEXANS -7.5 vs. Colts
BILLS +5.5 vs. Seahawks
Lions -5.5 vs. CARDINALS
Panthers +2.5 vs. CHARGERS
Steelers -1.5 vs. COWBOYS
RAIDERS -2.5 vs. Chiefs
49ers +5.5 vs. PATRIOTS
TITANS -1.5 vs. Jets
Last Week: 6-10
Season: 101-107
12/11 Mike Lucas's MVP Watch
Each week Mike Lucas will update everyone on the NFL MVP Race.
After Week 14
1. Peyton Manning – Peyton still tops
this list as he adds another 300-yard game and another win to his season stats.
Peyton has led the Broncos to the division title in only 13 games, and is
putting up great numbers. 30 TDs and 3,812 yards. Brady may have slightly
better numbers, but Peyton is more valuable to his team.
2. Tom Brady – What else is there to
say about Tom Brady? He is almost the perfect quarterback. 29 touchdowns this
year and only 4 interceptions. That is absurd. Not to mention he is the
quarterback on the best team in the league right now. Manning’s lead in the MVP
race is so thin right now you couldn’t even slide a dime between these two.
3. Adrian Peterson – Peterson has 334
more rushing yards then anyone else in the league. Yes, that’s correct, 334
more yards. Not to mention he is coming back from a torn ACL, MCL, and PCL
injury. He is averaging more yards per carry then Ponder is averaging per
completion. This guy is an animal, beast, stud, all of the above. He is an
unstoppable force of nature, AND he does this against 8 or 9 men in the box
every play. He is just as deserving as Manning and Brady for the MVP award,.
Take him off the Vikings and their offense is comparable to the Cardinals.
4. Robert Griffin III – What this guy
is doing as a rookie is crazy. He has completely turned around a franchise that
has been mediocre for the past 10 years. For the season he has thrown for 18
touchdowns and has already broken the record for most rushing touchdowns for a
QB for a single season. He has been as valuable to his team as anyone this
year. Let’s just hope his knee is OK.
5. Aldon Smith – Smith has 19.5 sacks
through 13 games, which is absurd. The knock on Smith is that he is only a pass
rusher, and too much of a specialist. But guess what, this guy might be the
best specialist we’ve seen in the NFL in years. He may be a specialist but he’s
damn good at his specialty. He is on pace to break the sack record by 3 sacks.
He has 19.5 sacks and he isn’t even an every down player, just imagine the numbers
he’d have if he played every down. WOW.
12/8 Week 14 NFL Picks (Home Team in CAPS)
RAIDERS +10.5 vs. Broncos
Rams +3.5 vs. BILLS
Cowboys +3.5 vs. BENGALS
Chiefs +5.5 vs. BROWNS
Titans +5.5 vs. COLTS
Bears -2.5 vs. VIKINGS
STEELERS -6.5 vs. Chargers
BUCS -7.5 vs. Eagles
REDSKINS -0.5 vs. Ravens
PANTHERS +3.5 vs. Falcons
JAGUARS +2.5 vs. Jets
49ERS -10.5 vs. Dolphins
Saints +5.5 vs. GIANTS
SEAHAWKS -10.5 vs. Cardinals
PACKERS -6.5 vs. Lions
Texans +4.5 vs. PATRIOTS
Last Week:
Season: 95- 97
12/1 Week 13 NFL Picks (Home Team in CAPS)
Saints +3.5 vs. FALCONS
Jaguars +6.5 vs. BILLS
BEARS -4.5 vs. Seahawks
LIONS -4.5 vs. Colts
PACKERS -9.5 vs. Vikings
Texans -5.5 vs. TITANS
CHIEFS +3,5 vs. Panthers
49ers -7.5 vs. RAMS
Patriots -7.5 vs. DOLPHINS
Cardinals +4.5 vs. JETS
BRONCOS -6.5 vs. Buccaneers
RAIDERS -0.5 vs. Browns
Bengals -1.5 vs. CHARGERS
RAVENS -6.5 vs. Steelers
Eagles -9.5 vs. COWBOYS
Giants -2.5 vs. REDSKINS
Last Week: 9-7
Season: 89-87
11/28 Mike Lucas's MVP Watch
Each week Mike Lucas will update everyone on the NFL MVP Race.
After Week 12
1. Peyton Manning – Peyton stays on
top of the rankings after another 285 yard, 2-touchdown performance in a win
against the Chiefs. He has been everything the Broncos expected this season,
and then some.
2. Tom Brady – Brady finally makes an
appearance on my list after an amazing 5 game stretch. In his last 5 games,
Brady has thrown 14 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. On the season he has 24
touchdowns, which is 4th best in the NFL and only 3 interceptions.
Yes, you read that right….3. He has been the leader of the leagues most
explosive offense.
3. Robert Griffin III – RGIII is
easily the most exciting player in the league to watch. The things he does on
the field are just remarkable, and he is just getting better as the season goes
on. In his last two games, he has thrown 8 touchdowns, and 9 incompletions.
Crazy. He has turned this whole franchise around and has them contending for
the NFC East title.
4. Adrian Peterson – Even though the
Vikings lost to the Bears on Sunday, Peterson did his part with 108 yards,
averaging 6 yards per carry. This marks his 5th strait game with 100
plus rushing yards. Image how many yards he could have racked up if the Vikings
didn’t abandon the running game halfway through the 3rd quarter.
5. Aldon Smith – Smith etches out
Aaron Rodgers for the last spot on my list this week after Rodgers had a
miserable performance against the Giants. Smith on the other hand, has 16.5
sacks in 11 games. He is on pace for 25 sacks, which would break Michael
Strahan’s sack record of 22. He is practically unblockable. He has speed,
power, and finesse.
11/22 NFL Week 12 Picks (Home Team in CAPS)
LIONS +3.5 vs. Texans
Redskins +3.5 vs. COWBOYS
Patriots -6.5 vs. JETS
Vikings +5.5 vs. BEARS
Raiders +7.5 vs. BENGALS
Steelers -3.5 vs. BROWNS
COLTS -3.5 vs. Bills
Broncos -10.5 vs. CHIEFS
DOLPHINS +2.5 vs. Seahawks
Falcons -0.5 vs. BUCS
Titans -2.5 vs. JAGUARS
Ravens -0.5 vs. CHARGERS
SAINTS +1.5 vs. 49ers
Rams +2.5 vs. CARDINALS
Packers +2.5 vs. GIANTS
Panthers +2.5 vs. EAGLES
Last Week: 9-5
Season: 80-80
11/22 Mike Lucas's MVP Watch
Each week Mike Lucas will update everyone on the NFL MVP Race.
After Week 11
1. Peyton Manning – Another solid
performance from Peyton on Sunday keeps him on top of these rankings. Has
turned the NFL’s worst passing team last year into one of the leagues best.
2. Aaron Rodgers – After the slow
start to the season, no one has been better then Rodgers. He has been so good
lately, it’s actually sort of scary. He’s second in the league in TDs (27)
behind an offensive line that struggles in pass protection and with a running
game that hasn't had a 100 yard rusher in their last 37 games.
3. Adrian Peterson – Had his bye week
this week, so I can’t say he dominated like he has just about every other week
this season. Still leads the league in rushing yards though by over 100. This
week in a match up against he Bears could be his MVP moment this season.
4. Aldon Smith – After his 5.5 sack
performance on Monday Night Football against the Bears, he jumps over J.J. Watt
for not only the lead league in sacks, but in the MVP race as well. He’s been
the best player on arguably the best defense in the league.
5. Drew Brees – He’d be higher on
this list if the Saints didn't start off the season so poorly. The Saints might
just be the hottest team in football right now, in large part to the play of
Brees. He leads the league in TDs (28) and is 2nd in yards. This guy
is a stud. No questions asked.
11/15 NFL Week 11 Picks (Home Team in CAPS)
Dolphins +1.5 vs. BILLS
FALCONS -9.5 vs. Cardinals
COWBOYS -7.5 vs. Browns
LIONS +3.5 vs. Packers
Bengals -3.5 vs. CHIEFS
Jets +3.5 vs. RAMS
REDSKINS -3.5 vs. Eagles
Buccaneers -1.5 vs. PANTHERS
Jaguars +15.5 vs. TEXANS
Saints -4.5 vs. RAIDERS
Chargers +7.5 vs. BRONCOS
Colts +9.5 vs. PATRIOTS
Ravens +3.5 vs. STEELERS
49ERS -4.5 vs. Bears
Last Week: 8-6
Season: 71-75
11/13 Mike Lucas's MVP Watch
Each week Mike Lucas will update everyone on the NFL MVP Race.
After Week 10
 |
| Photo Rights to The Denver Post |
1. Peyton Manning – Take away an awful first quarter against
the Falcons, Manning (left) has thrown 21 touchdowns to only 3 interceptions. In half
a season, Manning has turned the Broncos from one of the leagues worst passing
attacks to one of the best. He has been a leader on and off the field for this
team, and at the moment is the frontrunner for MVP.
2. Adrian Peterson – After a 171-yard performance on Sunday
in a division over the Lions, Peterson’s MVP stock skyrockets. He has increased
his lead for the rushing title by over 120 yards now. He has been the main
point and the catalyst for one of the more surprising offenses and teams in the
league. Peterson’s production has also allowed 2nd year quarterback
Christian Ponder make easier reads by drawing more men into the box.
3. Aaron Rodgers – This spot could have gone to Matt Ryan,
but I’m giving the nod on the 3rd spot on this list to Rodgers.
Rodgers has throw for 25 touchdowns in 9 games and only 5 interceptions. Oh,
and he is doing this without any real semblance of a running attack, and with
his two best receivers (Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings) both missing games.
What Rodgers is doing this season is truly remarkable.
4. Matt Ryan – Ryan drops in the standings after the Falcons
suffered their first loss of the season this past Sunday to the Saints, even
though it wasn’t his fault (411 yards, 3 touchdowns). Ryan has put up solid
numbers this year, with 20 touchdowns and almost 2,800 yards. Still waiting for
a signature moment from Matty Ice though, and until we see one, he’s behind the
Manning, Peterson, and Rodgers in the MVP race.
5. J.J. Watt – The Houston Texans solidified themselves as
the best team in the AFC with a 13-6 win over the Chicago Bears, in which the
Texans defense dominated. No one is more influential on the Texans defense then
Watt, who leads the league in sacks with 10.5. He didn’t get to Jay Cutler for
a sack on Sunday night, but he was consistently causing him to make throws
early with quick pressure. Watt is also a freakish athlete. He is 6’5”, 295
pounds. No wonder offensive lineman can’t block him.
11/8 Mike Lucas's MVP Watch
Each week Mike Lucas will update everyone on the NFL MVP Race.
After Week 9
 |
| Photo Rights to sports-kings.com |
1. Matt Ryan – Ryan (left) has been the leader on the only
undefeated team in the NFL. Not only are the Falcons undefeated, the have one
of the most explosive offenses in the entire league. 17 touchdowns to only 6
interceptions and a 69% completion percentage aren’t bad numbers either.
2. Peyton Manning – If anyone had doubts preseason
to whether Peyton would be back to normal form, they look like idiots now.
Peyton has thrown 20 touchdowns to only 6 interceptions and leads the NFL with
a 85.4 total QBR. Peyton has been everything the Broncos thought they were
getting in the offseason….and then some.
3. Ben Roethlisberger – The Steelers would be
nowhere without Big Ben. Roethlisberger isn’t known for putting up great
numbers, but this season, he has thrown for 16 touchdowns to only 4
interceptions. The Steelers offensive line is one of the worst in the league,
so the fact he is putting up numbers like this behind them is amazing.
4. Adrian Peterson – Just like with Peyton, anyone
who doubted AD would be back is sitting at home now looking like a fool.
Peterson leads the NFL with 957 rushing yards, almost 70 more then the second
leading rusher. The Vikings at 5-4 might be the most surprising team in the
NFL, and Peterson is the reason why this team is winning games.
5. J.J. Watt – The Texans have the best record in
the AFC, and one of the top defenses in the league, and no one deserves more
credit for this then J.J. Watt. Through 8 games, Watt has 10.5 sacks and 10
passes defended at the line of scrimmage, both of which lead the league. He is
a nightmare for opposing QB’s and offensive coordinators. Watt has a been a
beast all season, and let’s not forget…this is only his second year in the NFL.
11/8 Week 10 Picks (Home Team in CAPS)
JAGUARS +3.5 vs. Colts
Giants -4.5 vs. BENGALS
Titans +6.5 vs. DOLPHINS
VIKINGS +2.5 vs. Lions
Bills +11.5 vs. PATRIOTS
SAINTS +2.5 vs. Falcons
Chargers +3.5 vs. BUCCANEERS
Broncos -3.5 vs. PANTHERS
Raiders +7.5 vs. RAVENS
SEAHAWKS -6.5 vs. Jets
EAGLES -1.5 vs. Cowboys
Rams +11.5 vs. 49ERS
Texans +1.5 vs. BEARS
STEELERS -12.5 vs. Chiefs
Last Week: 8-6
Season: 63-69
11/1 Week 9 Picks (Home Team in CAPS)
Chiefs +8.5 vs. CHARGERS
BENGALS +3.5 vs. Broncos
Ravens -3.5 vs. BROWNS
PACKERS -10.5 vs. Cardinals
Bears -3.5 vs. TITANS
COLTS +2.5 vs. Dolphins
REDSKINS -3.5 vs. Panthers
Lions -3.5 vs. JAGUARS
TEXANS -10.5 vs. Bills
Bucs +1.5 vs. RAIDERS
Vikings +4.5 vs. SEAHAWKS
Steelers +3.5 vs. GIANTS
Cowboys +4.5 vs. FALCONS
Eagles +3.5 vs. SAINTS
Last Week: 6-8
Season: 55-63
10/25 NFL Power Rankings After Week 7
1. Atlanta Falcons (6-0) LW 1.
2. Houston Texans (6-1) LW 2.
3. Chicago Bears (5-1) LW 5.
4. New York Giants (5-2) LW t3.
5. San Fransisco 49ers (5-2) LW 6.
6. Green Bay Packers (4-3) LW 7.
7. Baltimore Ravens (5-2) LW t3.
t8. New England Patriots (4-3) LW 9.
t8. Minnesota Vikings (5-2) LW 11.
t10. Denver Broncos (4-3) LW 10.
t10. Seattle Seahwaks (4-3) LW 8.
12. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-4) LW 16.
13. Arizona Cardinals (4-3) LW 12.
14. Dallas Cowboys (3-3) LW t18.
15. Philadelphia Eagles (3-3) LW t13.
16. Miami Dolphins (3-3) LW 17.
t17. San Diego Chargers (3-4) LW t13.
t17. Washington Redskins (3-4) LW 15.
19. Indianapolis Colts (3-3) LW 26.
20. St. Louis Rams (3-4) LW 22.
t21. Cincinnati Bengals (3-4) LW t18.
t21. New York Jets (3-4) LW t18.
23. New Orleans Saints (2-4) LW 27.
24. Detroit Lions (2-4) LW t18.
25. Tennessee Titans (3-4) LW 25.
26. Buffalo Bills (3-4) LW 24.
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-4) LW 23.
28. Oakland Raiders (2-4) LW 29.
29. Cleveland Browns (1-6) LW 30.
30. Carolina Panthers (1-5) LW 28.
31. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5) LW 31.
32. Kansas City Chiefs (1-5) LW 32.
10/24 NFL Week 8 Picks (home team in CAPS)
VIKINGS -6.5 vs. Buccaneers
Panthers +7.5 vs. BEARS
Chargers -2.5 vs. BROWNS
LIONS -2.5 vs. Seahawks
PACKERS -13.5 vs. Jaguars
Colts +3.5 vs. TITANS
RAMS +6.5 vs. Patriots
Dolphins +2.5 vs. JETS
Falcons +2.5 vs. EAGLES
Redskins +5.5 vs. STEELERS
CHIEFS -1.5 vs. Raiders
Giants -1.5 vs. COWBOYS
Saints +6.5 vs. BRONCOS
CARDINALS +6.5 vs. 49ers
Last Week: 6-7
Season: 49-55
10/21 NFL Power Rankings After Week 6
1. Atlanta Falcons (6-0)
2. Houston Texans (5-1)
t3. Baltimore Ravens (5-1)
t3. New York Giants (4-2)
5. Chicago Bears (4-1)
6. San Fransisco 49ers (4-2)
7. Green Bay Packers (3-3)
8. Seattle Seahawks (4-2)
9. New England Patriots (3-3)
10. Denver Broncos (3-3)
11. Minnesota Vikings (4-2)
12. Arizona Cardinals (4-2)
t13. Philadelphia Eagles (3-3)
t13. San Diego Chargers (3-3)
15. Washington Redskins (3-3)
16. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-4)
17. Miami Dolphins (3-3)
t18. Cincinnati Bengals (3-3)
t18. Dallas Cowboys (2-3)
t18. Detroit Lions (2-3)
t18. New York Jets (3-3)
22. St. Louis Rams (3-3)
23. Tampa Bay Buccanners (2-3)
24. Buffalo Bills (3-3)
25. Tennessee Titans (2-4)
26. Indiannapolis Colts (2-3)
27. New Orleans Saints (1-4)
28. Carolina Panthers (1-4)
29. Oakland Raiders (1-4)
30. Cleveland Browns (1-5)
31. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4)
32. Kansas City Chiefs (1-5)
5. Chicago Bears (4-1)
6. San Fransisco 49ers (4-2)
7. Green Bay Packers (3-3)
8. Seattle Seahawks (4-2)
9. New England Patriots (3-3)
10. Denver Broncos (3-3)
11. Minnesota Vikings (4-2)
12. Arizona Cardinals (4-2)
t13. Philadelphia Eagles (3-3)
t13. San Diego Chargers (3-3)
15. Washington Redskins (3-3)
16. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-4)
17. Miami Dolphins (3-3)
t18. Cincinnati Bengals (3-3)
t18. Dallas Cowboys (2-3)
t18. Detroit Lions (2-3)
t18. New York Jets (3-3)
22. St. Louis Rams (3-3)
23. Tampa Bay Buccanners (2-3)
24. Buffalo Bills (3-3)
25. Tennessee Titans (2-4)
26. Indiannapolis Colts (2-3)
27. New Orleans Saints (1-4)
28. Carolina Panthers (1-4)
29. Oakland Raiders (1-4)
30. Cleveland Browns (1-5)
31. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4)
32. Kansas City Chiefs (1-5)
10/18 NFL Week 7 Picks (Home Team in CAPS)
49ERS -7.5 vs. Seahawks
Titans +3.5 vs. BILLS
COLTS -3.5 vs. Browns
Packers -5.5 vs. RAMS
Cardinals +5.5 vs. VIKINGS
Redskins +6.5 vs. GIANTS
Saints -2.5 vs. BUCCANEERS
PANTHERS +2.5 vs. Cowboys
Ravens +6.5 vs. TEXANS
Jaguars +4.5 vs. RAIDERS
PATRIOTS -10.5 vs. Jets
BENGALS +2.5 vs. Steelers
Lions +5.5 vs. BEARS
Last Week: 7-7
Season: 43-48
10/10 NFL Week 6 Picks (Home Team in CAPS)
Steelers -5.5 vs. TITANS
FALONS -8.5 vs. Raiders
BROWNS +2.5 vs. Bengals
Rams +3.5 vs. DOLPHINS
Colts +3.5 vs. JETS
Lions +5.5 vs. EAGLES
BUCCANEERS -3.5 vs. Chiefs
RAVENS -3.5 vs. Cowboys
Bills +4.5 vs. CARDINALS
Patriots -3.5 vs. SEAHAWKS
Giants +5.5 vs. 49ERS
Vikings +2.5 vs. REDSKINS
Packers +3.5 vs. TEXANS
CHARGERS -2.5 vs. Broncos
Last Week: 6-8
Season: 36-41
10/3 NFL Week 5 Picks (Home Team in CAPS)
Cardinals -1.5 vs. RAMS
BENGALS -4.5 vs. Dolphins
Packers -7.5 vs. COLTS
Ravens -4.5 vs. CHIEFS
GIANTS -9.5 vs. Browns
STEELERS -3.5 vs. Eagles
Falcons -3.5 vs. REDSKINS
Seahawks +3.5 vs. PANTHERS
Bears -5.5 vs. JAGUARS
Titans +5.5 vs. VIKINGS
Broncos +6.5 vs. PATRIOTS
Bills +9.5 vs. 49ERS
SAINTS -3.5 vs. Chargers
JETS +7.5 vs. Texans
Last Week: 7-8
Season: 30-33
9/26 NFL Week 4 Picks (Home Team in CAPS)
Browns +12.5 vs. RAVENS
FALCONS -7.5 vs. Panthers
Patriots -3.5 vs. BILLS
LIONS -6.5 vs. Vikings
CHIEFS +0.5 vs. Chargers
Seahwaks -2.5 vs. RAMS
49ers -3.5 vs. JETS
Titans +12.5 vs. TEXANS
BRONCOS -6.5 vs. Raiders
CARDINALS -6.5 vs. Dolphins
Bengals -1.5 vs. JAGUARS
PACKERS -7.5 vs. Saints
Redskins +2.5 vs. BUCCANEERS
Giants +2.5 vs. EAGLES
COWBOYS -3.5 vs. Bears
Last Week 6-10, Season 23-25
9/25
"Tategate" and Where the NFL Should Go From Here
About 10 hours ago (I'm writing this just before 10 a.m.) I witnessed one of the saddest moments in my time as a sports fan. Keep in mind I support the Red Sox, Titans, and Patriots, and Bruins. I've dealt with Aaron Boone's home run to win the 2003 ALCS. I watched Kevin Dyson come up one yard short. 18-1. The Bruins blew a 3-0 lead to the Flyers (The Flyers!) in both the series and Game 7 of the 2010 Eastern Conference Semi's. I've seen teams I love break my heart.
But I never thought I'd get the same feeling from a Packer-Seahawks Week 3 game.
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| Photo Rights to CBS Sports |
And then...it wasn't. Maybe the refs were scared of the fans reaction, maybe they bet on the Seahawks (more on this later), maybe they just didn't know the rule. The play stood as called. The Seahawks were awarded the 14-12 win.
I was planning on going to bed and stayed up for another two hours watching postgame coverage. Everyone, I mean everyone, from the media to the players to the coaches to the people watching the game, everyone was PISSED. the game had been decided by the notorious replacement refs. Debates raged about whether this would be the tipping point to get the NFL to pony up their offer and get the old refs back. Tweets were edited for expletives and read on-air. It was one of those nights where you stop everything you were doing and just sit and watch. Horrified, I took it all in. Today, the NFL needs to move forward and address the situation. Here is what needs to be addressed from the league office.
1. The NFL needs to apologize to the Packers and the fans. They need to issue a statement that clearly states that the refs were wrong and cost the Packers the game. They need to announce that the officials from last night have officiated their final game. And anyone who can prove that they legally bet on the Packers to cover the 3.5 point spread (which they would have had the call been corrected) should be refunded in full not by Vegas but by the NFL. Yes, the NFL should shelve out $150 million or whatever it amounts to. They are the ones who won't pay the officials a full-time salary. It's all about the money for the owners, and if they are all tasked with shelving out $5-$8 million apiece to cover the betting losses then they will have been served justice. the NFL does not need to overturn the game result as some have called for. That's unfair to the Seahawks, and the outcome on the field needs to stand. But the NFL needs to pay for this.
2. The NFL needs to have the union officials ready and employed for Week 5. I know labor negotiations get ugly, but now is the time to close the deal. It's hard to have a deal soon enough that the refs could work Week 4 since the NFL week starts on Thursday nights now and you can't have that game done by replacement refs and the Sunday games done by the real refs. But Week 5 is doable. the refs need to do their part in all of this but giving up some of their outlandish demands, but the NFL needs to bend more, and they need a deal in time that in Week 5 the union refs are on the field.
9/19
Week 3 NFL Picks (Home Team in CAPS)
Giants -1.5 vs. PANTHERS
Rams +7.5 vs. BEARS
BROWNS +2.5 vs. Bills
Buccaneers +7.5 vs. COWBOYS
Lions -3.5 vs. TITANS
COLTS -3.5 vs. Jaguars
DOLPHINS +3.5 vs. Jets
49ers -7.5 vs. VIKINGS
SAINTS -8.5 vs. Chiefs
REDSKINS -3.5 vs. Bengals
CARDINALS +4.5 vs. Eagles
Falcons +2.5 vs. CHARGERS
BRONCOS +1.5 vs. Texans
Steelers -4.5 vs. RAIDERS
Patriots +2.5 vs. RAVENS
Packers -3.5 vs. SEAHAWKS
Last Week 10-6, Season 17-15
9/13
Week 2 NFL Picks (Home Team in CAPS)
PACKERS -5.5 vs. Bears
Chiefs +3.5 vs. BILLS
BENGALS -6.5 vs. Browns
COLTS +1.5 vs. Vikings
DOLPHINS +2.5 vs. Raiders
PATRIOTS -13.5 vs. Cardinals
GIANTS -7.5 vs. Buccaneers
EAGLES -2.5 vs. Ravens
Saints -2.5 vs. PANTHERS
Texans -7.5 vs. JAGUARS
RAMS +3.5 vs. Redskins
SEAHAWKS +3.5 vs. Cowboys
STEELERS -6.5 vs. Jets
CHARGERS -6.5 vs. Titans
Lions +6.5 vs. 49ers
FALCONS -3.5 vs. Broncos
Last Week 7-9
9/4
Week 1 NFL Picks (Home Team in CAPS)
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| Photo Rights to wsau.com |
Colts +10.5 vs. BEARS
BROWNS +8.5 vs. Eagles
LIONS -8.5 vs. Rams
Patriots -6.5 vs. TITANS
Falcons -0.5 vs. CHIEFS
Jaguars +4.5 vs. VIKINGS
SAINTS -9.5 vs. Redskins
Bills +3.5 vs. JETS
TEXANS -7.5 vs. Dolphins
PACKERS -6.5 vs. 49ers
Seahawks +1.5 vs. CARDINALS
BUCCANEERS +2.5 vs. Panthers
Steelers +1.5 vs. BRONCOS
RAVENS -6.5 vs. Bengals
RAIDERS +1.5 over Chargers
8/30
2012/13 NFL Predictions
AFC
East
Patriots- Duh
Jets- Not as bad as they are portrayed
Bills- At some point, you just can’t overcome the fact that
you’re the Bills
Dolphins- Will be lucky with 5 wins
North
Steelers- If they stay healthy they’re still the Kings here
Ravens- Suggs is not going to be replaceable
Bengals- Andy Dalton is not that good
Browns- Not a good time for Cleveland Sports fans
South
Titans- 10 wins will win this division. A good CJ2K will be a boost.
Texans- Wade Phillips’ D always has a sophomore slump
Colts- Andrew Luck is 6 wins by himself
Jaguars- It’s always good to have your only playmaker hold
out into the season
West
Broncos- Not a SB contender in my opinion
Chiefs- Bounce-back seems probable
Chargers- Norv Turner’s still the coach?! Meh.
Raiders- The AFC West: 4 very average teams
Wildcards: Ravens, Chiefs
Champion: Patriots- They’re just so much better than
everyone else.
NFC
East
Eagles- Redeem Team!
Cowboys- Still not a playoff team to me.
Giants- They never seem to play well 2 years in a row under
Coughlin
Redskins- I like RG3.
The rest of the team…not so much.
North
Packers- They went 15-1 last year. Let’s not forget that.
Bears- Good…not great.
Lions- Madden Curse could destroy them.
Vikings- Not even contenders for 3rd place.
South
Saints- Something tells me they play with a vengeance this
year.
Falcons- Their defense is just not inspiring.
Panthers- They have plenty of running backs
Buccaneers- Not buying the hype.
West
49ers- Not nearly as good as last year.
Seahawks- Good defense.
Not a big Russell Wilson guy.
Rams- At some point the offense needs to take a step
forward.
Cardinals- My favorites for the 1st pick come
April.
Wildcards: Bears, Lions
Champion: Eagles- Vick only has to play 2 or 3 games
(playoffs) for this to happen.
Awards
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Andrew Luck, QB, Colts- Man-crush
alert!
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Chandler Jones, DE, Patriots-
They score, they get to rush passer, Chandler racks up 15 sacks.
Offensive Player of the Year: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers- Do
I hear 50 TD passes?
Defensive Player of the Year: Von Miller, OLB, Broncos- The
next big thing.
Coach of the Year: Andy Reid- He goes 11 or 12 wins after
family tragedy…calling it.
MVP: Drew Brees – Seeing as how he’s the coach now too.
Super Bowl: Patriots over Eagles
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