1/4/13 A Statistical Analysis of the NFL MVP Race
by Jack Andrade
This season's NFL MVP Race appears to be a two horse race between Broncos QB Peyton Manning and Vikings RB Adrian Peterson. I don't need to brief readers on the seasons these guys are having, because Mike Lucas has done a terrific job outlining the MVP race all year on this blog.
That said, I've never gotten on the Peterson bandwagon and being a cynic I've come across as a hater and someone who just likes to take unpopular opinions. In reality, it's a passing league and I can't see how a QB wouldn't be the MVP, it's by far the most important position. So, in order to be fair and objective with myself I set out to look at this season's statistics objectively and really delve into this MVP race.
My research was done on all eligible passers and runners (RBs only, sorry Cam and RG3) for the entire 2012 NFL regular season. I set out to compare Peterson and Manning against "average" players at their positions, similar to WAR (Wins Above Replacement) in baseball. To determine an average player I took the average stats of the 16th and 17th best players at each position in every major stat category for that position, then used a conversion factor to match up the pass attempts or run attempts of the fictional "average player" and the real life superstar MVP candidate. My results speak for themselves.
Adrian Peterson
Season Stats: 348 carries, 2,097 yards, 6.0 avg, 12 TD
16/17 AVG- 224.5 carries (R.Bush, Turner), 1000.5 yards (Bradshaw, R.Bush) , 4.35 avg (Ridley, R.Bush), 6 TD (Bradshaw, Green-Ellis)
348/224.5 conversion factor- 4.35x348=1,513 yards, 348/224.5 multiplied by 6= 9.3 touchdowns.
Conclusion: Adrian Peterson’s statistical value over an average starting running back in the NFL this season was 586 yards and 2.7 Touchdowns.
Season Stats: 4,659 yards , 7.99 ypa, 37 TD, 11 INT, on 583 attempts
16/17 AVG- 16/17 AVG- 3,337.5 yards (Dalton and Rivers), 6.98 ypa (Cutler and Luck), 22 TD (Schaub and Flacco), 12.5 INT (Tannehill and Schaub), 522 ATT (Rivers and Weeden)
6.98x583= 4,069 yards
583/522 conversion factor- 583/522 mltiplied by 22 and 12.5 respectively= 24.6 touchdowns, 14 interceptions
Conclusion: Peyton Manning’s statistical value over an average starting quarterback in the NFL this season was 590 yards, 12.4 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions.
So, while both players provide a similar yardage upgrade, Manning presents a considerably better upgrade in touchdowns while also preventing 3 turnovers. Statistically speaking, it's that simple: To me, Peyton Manning is more valuable than Adrian Peterson.
But while we're on the subject, let's just check out a guy who isn't getting enough credit for the season he had, shall we?
Season Stats: 4,295 yards, 7.78 ypa, 39 TD, 8 INT, on 552 attempts
16/17 AVG- 16/17 AVG- 3,337.5 yards (Dalton and Rivers), 6.98 ypa (Cutler and Luck), 22 TD (Schaub and Flacco), 12.5 INT (Tannehill and Schaub), 522 ATT (Rivers and Weeden)
6.98x552= 3,852 yards
552/522 conversion factor- 552/522 multiplied by 22 and 12.5 respectively= 23.3 touchdwons, 13.2 interceptions.
Conclusion: Aaron Rodgers’ statistical value over an average starting quarterback in the NFL this season was 443 yards, 15.7 touchdowns, and 5.2 interceptions.
Questions for the Peterson Fans Answered
1. C'mon man! take AP off the Vikings and they'd be terrible! Tebow took the Broncos to the playoffs last year, and Matt Flynn threw for a million yards in that one game!
JA: his is 2012 we're talking about. Graham Harrell is the Packers' backup, and if he was the starter they'd be 4-12. If Brock Osweiler (or Tim Tebow) started for the Broncos they'd be 5-11. That's a 7 or 8 game drop. a 7 or 8 game drop for the Vikings puts them at 3-13 or 2-14. I think they'd have 5 wins with Toby Gerhart as the starter at running back. I think AP's stats are the most outstanding, and therefore he should be Offensive Player of the Year. But the MVP is for QBs, sorry.
2. Yeah, but teams put 8 in the box and Peterson still gets a ton of yards!
JA: Yes, and it's not like other teams aren't game-planning for Manning or Rodgers just as much. They face blitzes and complex coverages just like Peterson faces an 8 man front. All 3 are unbelievable players and that's why they're MVP candidates. And yes Christian Ponder sucks but is he worse as a QB than Ryan Grant or Knowshon Moreno are as RBs? All three are doing it by themselves.
3. Those yardage bonuses are bogus! Peterson averages 1.65 more yards per carry than the "average" RB and the QBs only average 1.01 (Manning) and 0.8 (Rodgers) more yards per attempt than the "average" QB!
JA: Thanks for reading my article! I thought you just skipped down here to call me an idiot. And yes, Peterson does have a bigger advantage but the difference is that he ran the ball 348 times and those guys threw the ball over 550 times, because it's a passing league and QBs are more valuable as a result. So a 1.01 advantage on 583 pass attemps was 4 yards more valuable than the 1.65 edge on 348 rush attempts.
4. Peterson was 9 yards away from the record! that alone is MVP worthy!
JA: You're talking to a guy that didn't vote for Miguel Cabrera for MVP after he won the triple crown!
5. You didn't love QBs this much when you said Manti Te'o deserved the Heisman over Johnny Manziel!
JA: Gosh, you read all my stuff, I'm flattered. Difference is the Heisman goes to college football's "Most Outstanding Player" not its most valuable. The V in MVP stands for Quarterback. And also, like those who supported Manziel, I don't blame them at all and he was a very worthy winner, as are Peterson and Manning. I'm just showing how I concluded Rodgers was the MVP, everyone's opinion is different and I think Lucas' reasoning makes sense for why he ordered the top 3 differently from me. I'm just a stats guy and presenting my findings. And Lucas' ballot is right below for another perspective (and a more AP-friendly one too).
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