The Boston Celtics' season is over, and the fans are already trying to figure out a plan for the offseason. Injuries or not, the 2012/13 Celtics were clearly not a good enough team to merit the "contender" label, and an old team that can't contend is an absolute nightmare for a GM. The C's are in real danger of falling into "no man's land," NBA's version of purgatory.
Situated between the late lottery and out of championship contention, teams in "no man'ss land" pick between 8-22 every year in the draft- too late to land any blue chippers like Kevin Durant or Kyrie Irving. They have high payrolls and lots of role players, the most overpaid demographic in the NBA. The result is a trap in which the team take years to get out of "no man's land", and usually wind up having to tank a season or two to do it.
"No man's land" is the worst place to be as a NBA franchise, so the Celtics goal for the 2013 offseason should be to avoid a long stay in basketball limbo. As such, they have three courses of action to choose from. I'll go into detail on what each of those options are, and rank them in order of viability for the Celtics situation.
3. The "Re-Load" Approach
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Right now the nucleus of the future in Boston appears to be Rajon Rondo, Jeff Green, and Avery Bradley in that order. Clearly, no NBA contender is going to have that top 3. The Celtics goal would be to trade old guns Paul Pierce (right) and Kevin Garnett in exchange for a young piece or two to add to that nucleus.
One idea to employ this approach would be to find contenders that would deal a young piece for Pierce or KG. The Warriors reportedly turned down a Pierce/Harrison Barnes swap already this season, and there was the famous KG for DeAndre Jordan and Eric Bledsoe rumor with the Clippers. Those are the types of deals that Danny Ainge would make if he were to "re-load" the Celtics roster and try and build a contender on the fly.
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The second problem with the "re-load" approach is that even if the Celtics could coax other teams into these trades, I'm not sure they'd be contenders. Let's say for the sake of argument that both trades I talked about had been made mid-season, and everyone on the Celtics stayed healthy by some miracle. Would a 10-man squad of Rondo/Bledsoe/Bradley/Jason Terry/Courtney Lee/Barnes/Green/Sullinger/Bass/Jordan be good enough to contend with the elite teams in the NBA? I don't know that they would. So as nice as it would be to re-load, the Celtics will have to consider an alternative plan for this offseason.
2. The "Re-Build" Approach
This is a more realistic approach than the "re-load" approach since it allows for things like retirement and other GMs being smart.
Basically the "re-build" aproach would entail a fire sale of veteran players by the Celtics. Trade what's left of Pierce/Terry/Garnett retirements for whatever young players and draft picks you can get. Brandon Bass, Courtney Lee, and Jeff Green can all get traded to contenders in need of vets to fill roles. Sit Rajon Rondo for all of next season, much like Chicago and Derrick Rose. Have Avery Bradley run around out there with a bunch of young guys and let him become a "star" and learn to create his own scoring chances. Let Jared Sullinger hone his post game. Play Fab Melo. Tank the season away and pick some 19-year-old prodigy in the Top 3 and then build around that kid and Rondo going forward. Basically the C's would have to be willing to suck next year and start from scratch (plus Rondo). It's more feasible than the "re-load," and it's a better option anyway.
The problems with the "re-build" approach are pretty obvious. The Celtics would be banking their future on a moody point guard and a 19-year-old kid from John Calipari's D-League program (below). Not exactly the most exciting option for fans. Celtics fans would also wind up abandoning the team until they got good again, since the Bruins are a good team and the two seasons run together. No one would talk about the Celtics when the Bruins were playoff contenders and the C's were bottom feeders. The loss in revenue would be a bigger problem than it should be, since it is a business after all and winning is only as important as the bottom line.
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The "re-build" approach is a risky endeavor, but at least it means avoiding "no man's land," which is more than can be said about the "re-load" approach.
1. The "Wait and See" Approach
The "wait and see" approach isn't "sexy" or exciting, but it's very possible that this will be the option Danny Ainge chooses, and it's my personal favorite.
The reasoning behind this approach is the landscape of the NBA and how the league works. It's the toughest league to re-build a team in of any major sport, and as such it's the league that forces GMs to focus as much on everyone else's team as much as their own. It seems strange to let other teams sort of dictate your course of action in building a team, but in the NBA, it's a necessity.
Right now, everyone in the East is chasing the Heat, so everyone in the East builds their team with beating the Heat in mind. This means letting go of traditional centers and stocking up on athletic wing players to match up with LeBron James and Dwayne Wade. In 2014, however, the NBA can change in a single summer. The 2014 Free Agent Class is shaping up to be similar to the 2010 class, where numerous All-Stars hit the market all at once. LeBron is also in both of those classes, and he's the crown jewel of the NBA for lack of a better term. Wherever LBJ (below) ends up, that team will construct the roster that the other 29 teams need to stop. So teams that started trying to beat the Heat in 2010 and are finally starting to get good at it (Hey, Chicago!) might have to start preparing for a whole new team to stop should "The King" take his talents elsewhere in 2014 (and if you don't think he'd leave Miami under any circumstance, talk to some fans from Cleveland). So the NBA is kind of on standby until the dust clears on the 2014 free agent class.
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The Celtics are actually in pretty good shape for the "wait and see" approach. Pierce's big contract comes off the books in 2014, with many more to follow in 2015 (including Garnett). The Celtics would have to accept that they wouldn't contend in the next two seasons while they waited for their re-building goals to become more focused. They could probably have Pierce and KG announce that next season will be their final year before retiring, and they could have a feel good swan song season together as Celtics fans could give them a nice send-off. Once LeBron chooses his new team in 2014, the Celtics can begin re-building by trading players who won't be around by the time they get good again (probably everyone but Rondo, Green, Bradley, and Sullinger). Then they could use their cap space to sign a star to pair with Rondo or maybe 2 good pieces if no stars are available in 2015. Best case scenario, LeBron moves to the West and the Celtics become the team to beat in the East again. It's do-able.
The problem with the "wait and see" approach is that it's hard to be patient. Ainge and Doc Rivers tried the patient thing with their crappy young teams in the mid-2000s and that didn't go so well until the Ray Allen and Garnett trades changed the NBA landscape. So the Celtics might want to re-load even if it's not in their best interest. They might blow it up to try and re-build it all now because they see a re-build coming on the horizon, and they'd rather just get it over with. I'm not saying the "wait and see" approach is perfect, or even the right choice unanimously, but it's the choice I'd pick if I ran the C's. Now all there is to do is sit back and enjoy the show.
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