Breaking Down Pre-Combine Positional Rankings

The 2013 NFL Scouting Combine is just a day away, as the festivities begin on Wednesday and will really pick up over the weekend.  Year in and year out the combine is a huge factor in determining a prospect’s stock, and this year there are tons of players to keep an eye on.  With that in mind, let’s take a look at my top 5 players at each position before the combine.

Quarterback

1. Geno Smith, West Virginia

2. E.J. Manuel, Florida St.

t3. Matt Barkley, USC

t3. Mike Glennon, NC St.

5. Ryan Nassib, Syracuse

Running Back

1. Giovani Bernard, UNC

t2. Mike Gilislee, Florida

t2. Eddie Lacy, Alabama

t2. Stepfan Taylor, Stanford

5. Le’Veon Bell, Michigan St.

Offensive Tackle

1. Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M

2, Eric Fisher, Central Michigan

3. D.J. Fluker, Alabama

4. Lane Johnson, Oklahoma

5. Kyle Long, Oregon

Guard/Center

1. Chance Warmack, Alabama

2. Jonathan Cooper, UNC

3. Barrett Jones, Alabama

4. Larry Warford, Kentucky

5. Travis Frederick, Wisconsin

Tight End

1. Tyler Eifert, Notre Dame

2. Zach Ertz, Stanford

3. Jordan Reed, Florida

t4. Gavin Escobar, San Diego St.

t4. Travis Kelce, Cincinnati

Wide Receiver

1. Cordarelle Paterson, Tennessee

2. DeAndre Hopkins, Clemson

t3. Terrance Williams, Baylor

t3. Keenan Allen, California

5. Robert Woods, USC

Defensive Tackle

1. Star Lotulelei, Utah

2. Sheldon Richardson, Missouri

3. Sharrif Floyd, Florida

4. John Jenkins, Georgia

5. Johnathan Hankins, Ohio St.

Pass Rusher

1. Bjoern Werner, Florida St.

2 Damontre Moore, Texas A&M

3. Jarvis Jones, Georgia

4. Alex Okafor, Texas

5. Ezekiel Ansah, BYU

Linebackers

1. Kevin Minter, LSU

t2. Khaseem Greene, Rutgers

t2. Manti Te’o, Notre Dame

4. Alec Ogletree, Georgia

5. Arthur Brown, Kansas St.

Cornerbacks

1. DeMarcus Milliner, Alabama

2. Johnthan Banks, Mississippi st.

3. Desmond Trufant, Washington

4. Xavier Rhodes, Florida St.

5. Jordan Poyer, Oregon St.

Safeties

1. Kenny Vaccaro, Texas

2. Eric Reid, LSU

t3. Johnathan Cyprien, Cental Florida

t3. Matt Elam, Florida

t3. T.J. Mcdonald, USC

I’m sure plenty of names caught your eye or surprised you.  Without going too deep into my ratings process, here’s some explanations of key decisions/surprises.

First, let’s talk about the linebackers in this year’s class.  Alec Ogletree of Georgia is the consensus top guy, but his recent DUI arrest is just the latest in a long list of red flags.  Due to some bad intangibles, a lack of coverage skills, and his smaller-than-ideal stature, I’ve got Ogletree ranked fourth among linebackers, and he doesn’t have a first round grade.  Neither does Manti Te’o, who I have ranked tied for second.  It remains to be seen how NFL teams view Te’o after the hoax girlfriend, but that aside Te’o isn’t a tackling machine or a guy that is going to blow up a lot of ball carriers in the backfield.  I think his lack of top speed (let’s see his 40 time) means he’s best suited as a 3-4 inside linebacker.

Khaseem Greene is tied with Te’o and is the top 4-3 outside linebacker prospect in this class.  Greene is a former safety who tackles and covers very well, but is undersized.  If he shows good strength and tests well in Indy, he could be a first round pick despite 4-3 OLBs having low positional value. 

Lastly, the top linebacker on my board right now is Kevin Minter from LSU.  He doesn’t get the attention of Te’o or Ogletree but Minter had more tackles than either of them last season.  He played the Mike on LSU’s vaunted defense and called the plays with a slew of other NFL caliber talents around him.  Minter doesn’t have any measurables that jump out at you but he’s a really solid middle linebacker in a 4-3 and I have him graded as a mid to late first rounder.

My pass rushers board is also a bit different that most analysts but I feel confident in how it is stacked.  Ezekiel Ansah from BYU is the fifth ranked edge rusher and has freakish upside.  He ranks higher than lauded rushers Dion Jordan (Oregon) and Barkevious Mingo (LSU) because he is the biggest and probably the strongest of the three.  All three don’t have the stats to back up their talent, but Ansah scored higher and is a mid to late first rounder. 

Alex Okafor is probably a surprise ahead of those guys but the senior from Texas is the real deal.  He racked up 12.5 sacks last year and was dominant in his bowl game.  He also is one of the few pass rushers in this class that can play end in a 4-3 without having to add weight and slow his speed.  With a good combine I expect other analysts will realize he’s likely going to go in the 15-25 range.

Jarvis Jones of Georgia is the toughest player in this draft to guage, because he’s one of the most electric prospects in the draft but has a couple of red flags.  First, he has a spinal disorder that caused USC’s doctors to rule him unable to play, leading to his transfer to Georgia after his freshman year.  I’m not sure how NFL teams will assess that, but I can’t help but be reminded that Da’Quan Bowers was a consensus Top 5 pick who fell to the 50^th selection two years ago because of a knee issue that flared up before the draft.  The other red flag against Jones is that there are rumblings that he isn’t a workout warrior and likely will struggle at the combine.  So there is clearly a lot of risk involved with Jones, but I have him firmly in the first round.  He’s too good of a football player to fall far.

Second among pass rushers is Damontre Moore of Texas A&M, a likely Top 5 pick.  I think Moore is a tad overrated at the moment but a great combine could help persuade me that he’s worth a Top 5 pick.  I’ve got him valued right around the 8-12 range. 

The top guy as far as pass rushers right now is Bjoern Werner of Florida St.  Werner is German-born and hasn’t been playing football for that long, but he’s a natural.  He’s one of the rare pass rushers in this class that’s ready to play 43 end and his 13.5 sacks last year are evidence that he can get after the QB at will.  Werner is also a proficient run stopper and should be a Top 10 pick barring some real missteps in the pre-draft process.

Photo Rights to ESPN

Alas, the most important (and difficult) position to evaluate is the Quarterback position.  Tyler Wilson is a name that keeps popping up as a potential number 2 QB behind Geno Smith but I’m not seeing it from Wilson.  He has a below average arm and isn’t particularly great at anything, although he has shown plenty of toughness playing behind a bad line in college.  I have him ranked sixth among QBs, with a third round grade.

Coming in at number 5 is Ryan Nassib, the Syracuse signal caller who is drawing Andy Dalton comparisons.  Nassib (left) doesn’t have a great arm or anything special physically, but he’s a smart player who has a lot of experience as a fifth year senior.  I’m curious to see how his interviews at the combine go, because that was a major stock booster for Dalton two years ago.  Righ now I’ve got Nassib slotted with a low second/high third round grade.

Matt Barkley and Mike Glennon are tied for third among QBs on my board, with mid to low second round grades.  These two are the bottom rung as far as QBs I can see being starters in the league (making 4 in this class).  Barkley stayed at USC for his senior year even though he could have gone as high as 4^th to Cleveland last year (and as low as 22^nd, again to Cleveland).  His stock dropped as he made some awful decisions and seemed to regress as far as his accuracy goes.  He isn’t going to throw at the combine so his stock should remain stagnant.  Barkley reminds me of Jimmy Clausen, but I think he will entice someone into picking him higher than he deserves based off his stock from a year ago (a la Jake Locker two years ago.)

Photo Rights to sbnation.com

Mike Glennon (right) is a big, strong armed QB who has yet to harness his physical gifts.  He is a turnover machine and makes bad reads when he has too much time to think.  The result is a guy someone might draft to be Joe Flacco, and he might also turn out to be just a stiff, immobile QB who has a cannon arm but can’t make the right reads.  He is definitely a boom or bust prospect.

My second ranked QB is E.J. Manuel, and I’m sure I’m in the minority in having Manuel ranked so high (I’ve got him ranked as a low first/high second round prospect right now).  Manuel’s critics will point to his decision making, his inability to dominate at Florida St., and his meltdown against Florida this season on national TV.  However, I believe it now and I expect the combine to confirm that Manuel is easily the most naturally gifted of the top level QBs.  He has ideal size (around 6’5’’, 240) and will run a solid 40 time as well.  He also has the second strongest arm in the draft behind Glennon.  I’m a believer that there are certain advantages to having skills that can’t be taught and Manuel has a bevy of them.  I think he could definitely run the spread-read-option gimmick that the NFL is gaga over, but he also has 4 years of experience in a west coast offense under Jimbo Fisher.  At some point or another, I have to believe Manuel will get a good chance to be a starting QB in the NFL, and with some coaching and improvement, he can be a franchise quarterback.

Geno Smith is my top QB prospect, ranking somewhere around the low teens on my overall board.  Smith needs to learn to read defenses better after playing in a gimmicky spread college attack, but I think he should transition well because he protects the ball and generally is a pretty accurate passer.  He’s not Andrew Luck or RG3 but I think Geno Smith will turn into a starter in the league and he can be great if put in a position to succeed.  I think Mike Mayock said it best when he said Smith is a guy you like and would like to have, but nobody is banging the table in the draft room to demand that he be the guy their team selects.

The Complete Schedule for the 2013 NFL Scouting Combine is as follows:

Wednesday, Feb. 20
• PK/ST/OL/TE medical pre-exam and X-rays, orientation, interviews

Thursday, Feb. 21
• PK/ST/OL/TE measurements, medical exams, media, interviews
• QB/WR/RB medical pre-exam and X-rays, orientation, interviews

Friday, Feb. 22
• PK/ST workout; PK/ST/OL/TE bench press, psychological testing, interviews
• QB/WR/RB measurements, medical exams, media, interviews
• DL/LB medical pre-exam and X-rays, orientation, interviews

Saturday, Feb. 23
• OL/TE on-field workout (timing, stations, skill drills)
• QB/WR/RB psychological testing, bench press, interviews
• DL/LB measurements, medical exams, media, interviews
• DB medical pre-exam and X-rays, orientation, interviews

Sunday, Feb. 24
• QB/WR/RB on-field workout
• DL/LB psychological testing, bench press, interviews
• DB measurements, medical exams, media, interviews

Monday, Feb. 25
• DL/LB on-field workout
• DB psychological testing, bench press, interviews

Tuesday, Feb. 26

• DB on-field workout

Remember to stay tuned for daily updates on all things combine, and follow me on twitter for up to the minute news and analysis by clicking here