Wednesday, February 20, 2013

The Trade The Celtics Should Make (Bye, Rondo)

Celtics point guard Rajon Rondo is on the trade block again, only this year with a new set of circumstances.  Rondo tore his ACL and is out for the season, and the Celtics are unlikely to trade him because it's hard for other teams to gauge his value (if Derrick Rose had recovered from his ACL tear by now and was playing well, his value would definitely be higher).  That said, I believe there is a trade out there for Rondo that will benefit the Celtics this season and in the future.  Here's a brief breakdown (since the Trade Machine doesn't include draft picks):

Celtics Acquire PG Aaron Brooks and C DeMarcus Cousins from Kings, SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrest from Bobcats

Kings Acquire PG Rajon Rondo, C Fab Melo, and Boston's 1st round pick in 2013 from Celtics.

Bobcats Acquire PF Jared Sullinger and a lottery protected 2014 1st round pick (which they can roll over into 2015 if Boston is in the lottery in 2014) from Celtics, SG Tyreke Evans and a 2013 Top 5 Protected (Top 5 protected in 2014, 2015, and 2016, unprotected in 2017).

Here's why each team does this deal:

Celtics- The Celtics have played better without Rondo this year and can move him for some able-bodied players.  Cousins would give the team a true center and an upgrade over Melo.  Aaron Brooks is a decent point guard for depth and would fit into the rotation with Leandro Barbosa out for the year (just give Barbosa's minutes to Brooks).  And Kidd-Gilchrest, a SF/PF hybrid would give the team a strong defender on the wing and ease the minutes load on Paul Pierce (old), Kevin Garnett (ditto) and Jeff Green (heart problems) and Brandon Bass (not very good).  With an eye on the future, MKG was the second pick in last years's draft and I'm a huge fan of his game.  He has a Scottie Pippen type mentality and skill set and could turn out to be an all-star.  Cousins has always had the talent but has serious maturity issues and his act is growing old in Sacramento.  If anyone can straighten him out, it's Doc Rivers and Kevin Garnett.  And Brooks is simply a fill-in for Barbosa.

The Kings should make this deal even though it means they will wind up forfeiting a valuable 1st round pick in the process.  Cousins is a problem in Sacramento and a change of scenery is needed.  Tyreke Evans is a free agent after the season and hasn't lived up to his rookie season.  Once I projected all-star, Evans has almost no value on the trade market.  For the ability to swap those two into a franchise building block like Rondo, it's worth a lottery pick.  They're also getting Boston's 2013 1st round pick, which will be somewhere in the 15-19 range.

Side Note:  The Cavs own the Kings 1st round pick (Top 13 protected in 2013, top 12 in 2014, top 10 protected in 2015 and 2016, otherwise a 2nd round pick in 2017) as part of the Omri Casspi trade a few years back.  This means that under this trade the Kings will get to keep their 1st round pick if it is in the top 5 in 2013, it will go to Charlotte if it is between 6-13, and it will go to Cleveland if it is 14-30.  And so on and so forth until they give away two 1st round picks.  If in 2017 they somehow have kept all those 1st rounders then their unprotected 1st rounder will go to Charlotte and their 2nd rounder will go to Cleveland.

The Bobcats should make this trade even though they have to give up MKG.  Even if they valued him as equal to a future #2 overall pick (and I'm not sure they do), they're essentially trading down from 2 to somewhere between 6-10 most likely, and they're also picking up the promising Sullinger (out for the year with a back injury) and Evans, who they could re-sign pretty cheap and hope a change of scenery helps launch him back towards stardom.  They're also getting Boston's lottery protected 1st round pick in 2014 as an additional asset.

Thoughts?  I'll be playing with the trade machine all the way up to the deadline on Thursday afternoon.  Feel free to make some of your own and tweet them at me here.

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