The Top 15 NFL QB Prospects in the Last 3 Drafts

Every year, the Quarterback position gets the most attention in the pre-draft process, and for good reason.  It's easily the most important position on the field, and likewise the most important to draft successfully

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(Browns fans are nodding their heads right now).  Draft analysts always wind up comparing draft prospects to players currently in the league, or from previous drafts.  I've dusted off my old flash-drive to take a look at the last 3 NFL Draft Classes, and specifically at how I've rated the QBs.  Keep in mind these ratings are strictly the ratings I gave the prospects at the time they were preparing for the draft, which explains why Russell Wilson is below Blaine Gabbert.  I hope this article will help you better understand how this year's crop of QBs stacks up against the past couple of years' classes.  I'm including where each QB would rank on my overall Big Board if they were in the 2013 Class, just for comparison sake.  In reverse order, here's a look at the Top 15 QB prospects from my board in the last 3 years.

Honorable Mention:  Not sure if it's honorable to not make the Top 15 in a 3 year span, but Nick Foles and Brandon Weeden both missed it by a small margin.

15. Ryan Nassib, #4 QB, Class of 2013, Syracuse- Spot on 2013 Big Board:  64th overall

Nassib is a game manager with a good brain and a weak arm.  He has accuracy to make the short throws but isn't anything special.  His range in the 2013 draft appears to be between 8 and 41.

14. Christian Ponder, #7 QB, Class of 2011, Florida St.- Spot on 2013 Big Board: 58th overall

Ponder was the 12th pick in the 2011 draft, and has looked more like the QB I had him rated as coming out.  He is a similar QB to Nassib.  2013 will be a crucial year for him to prove he can be the Vikings QB long term.

13. Russell Wilson, #4 QB, Class of 2012, Wisconsin- Spot on 2013 Big Board: 55th overall

Like many, I didn't foresee Wilson being as good as he has been.  I still don't love him as a franchise QB, but there's no question he is better than where I and my fellow draftniks had him rated coming out.

12. Matt Barkley, #3 QB, Class of 2013, USC- Spot on 2013 Big Board: 42nd overall

Barkley would have been higher on this list if he had declared in 2012.  His stock has dropped in the past year but he still has the potential to be a starting QB in the league.  He could go anywhere from 7th overall to the 3rd round in the upcoming draft.

11. Andy Dalton, #6 QB, Class of 2011, TCU- Spot on 2013 Big Board: 36th overall

Dalton's ranking is spot on, I think.  He is an elite game manager (aka just an average QB) but he is still a quality starter in the NFL today.  He'll never be great, but we knew that in 2011.

10. Ryan Tannehill, #3 QB, Class of 2012, Texas A&M- Spot on 2013 Big Board: 33rd overall

Tannehill was the 8th overall selection in 2012 and flashed some promise in 2012.  I feel good about where I had him slotted.  I think he has more potential than Dalton but he's got a ways to go.

9. Collin Kaepernick, #5 QB, Class of 2011, Nevada- Spot on 2013 Big Board: 31st overall

Kaepernick took the league by storm last year and made believers out of all his doubters.  There's no question he should have been rated higher than this coming out.

8. E.J. Manuel, #2 QB, Class of 2013, Florida St.- Spot on 2013 Big Board: 29th overall

Manuel is a virtual clone of Kaepernick.  I wrote a whole big thing about it.  He will likely go in the late 1st or early 2nd round in the upcoming draft, so I think I've valued him accurately.

7. Jake Locker, #4 QB, Class of 2011, Washington- Spot on 2013 Big Board: 20th overall

Locker was the 8th overall pick in the 2011 draft, but injuries and inconsistency have derailed him so far.  Like Ponder, this is a make-or-break season for the third year QB, who still has the potential to be a good starter in the NFL.

6. Blaine Gabbert, #3 QB, Class of 2011, Missouri- Spot on 2013 Big Board: 17th overall

Everyone whiffed on Blaine Gabbert.  We knew he was a little soft, but his arm strength and accuracy were awesome, and he had some wiggle in his mobility too.  Then he played against NFL teams and never really figured it out.  His career is just about over, and he was the 10th overall pick 2 years ago.  Wow.

5. Ryan Mallett, #2 QB, Class of 2011, Arkansas- Spot on 2013 Big Board: 11th overall

We don't know how well I valued Mallett because he's stuck behind that Brady guy in New England.  Mallett dropped to the third round because of intangible concerns and naturally has been incident-free over his 2-year career.  The Jaguars or Cardinals should have offered their early second round selections for him this offseason to see if the Patriots would let him go somewhere he could play.

4. Geno Smith, #1 QB, Class of 2013, West Virginia- Spot on 2013 Big Board: 9th overall

Geno is the top QB in the 2013 draft, and his range is between 3rd overall and the second round.  He has some major detractors, but if he doesn't go in the Top 10 at least 3 franchises will regret it.

3. Cam Newton, #1 QB, Class of 2011, Auburn- Spot on 2013 Big Board: 1st overall

The rest of these guys are sure-fire #1 worth QBs.  Newton was a Heisman winner and has showcased immense talent in his two years in Carolina.  He just needs some help around him and I think he'll develop into a franchise guy.

2. Robert Griffin III, #2 QB, Class of 2012, Baylor- Spot on 2013 Big Board: 1st overall

RG3 changed the league, plain and simple.  And if he ever stops throwing his body around like he's indestructible he can be a game-changer for a long, long time.

1. Andrew Luck, #1 QB, Class of 2012, Stanford- Spot on 2013 Big Board: 1st overall

Plain and simple, Luck is the best QB prospect I've ever graded.  I wasn't old enough for Peyton Manning or born in time for John Elway, but Luck drew comparisons to those guys and has lived up to the hype.  If the NFL re-drafted the whole league today, he'd go first or second overall with Aaron Rodgers.