Well, I'm like any other draftniks out there right now- nervously waiting for tonight's draft to make my predictions look foolish. Lots of rumors have been swirling around almost every team in the league this week, so everyone's a little confused and stumped. This is undoubtedly the most unpredictable draft in years. With that in mind, here's the best I could do.
1. Kansas City Chiefs- Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan- I don't know why we're all doing this, but I'm moving Eric Fisher to #1 in my mock draft. I thought this was a smokescreen initially but every major NFL Draft analyst is making the switch, so I'm assuming those with more insider sources know something I don't. Otherwise, we are all going to look stupid for copying each other for no reason. That's my logic- Everyone else did it, so they must know something I don't.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars- Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU- This pick is either Ansah or Joeckel, depending on who you trust with your Jags info. Dion Jordan seems like he is off the table at this point but maybe I'm wrong. The Jags identified 2 players they liked at this pick a few weeks ago. I think that was either the two LTs (in which case Joeckel is the pick) or it was Ansah and Jordan (in that order) as pass rushers. I'm siding with the latter for 2 reasons. First, the Raiders are getting a lot of calls about the third pick, which I think means Joeckel will be there. I think if the Jags liked Joeckel so much then they'd be getting those calls. And second, Gus Bradley spoke highly of Ansah and Jordan as perfect fits for his defense in pre-draft interviews.
3. Oakland Raiders- Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M- The Raiders reportedly are getting a lot of action on this pick, which leads me to believe Joeckel will be on the board when their name is called. The Raiders reportedly would be happy to pick Joeckel if he's here, but they could also trade with either the Chargers or Dolphins in a big move down. The Chargers would be tough to do bussiness with as a division rival, but the Dolphins make sense because they have 5 picks in the first 3 rounds and have the ammo to move from 12 to 3. The only issue with that is Oakland reportedly wants to stay in the Top 7. So, while this pick has a better chance of being traded than any other pick in the Top 5, I have the Silver and Black staying put and grabbing Joeckel.
4. Philadelphia Eagles- Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma- I've had Lane Johnson penciled in here for a long time and that isn't changing here in my final update. He's the last Left tackle available and a perfect fit in Chip Kelly's speed offense.
5. Detroit Lions- Jon Cooper, OG/C, North Carolina- The Lions are stuck in a nightmare situation here without a LT or the pass rusher they want available. They would definitely look to trade down but I don't see a team that would be desperate to move up to the 5th spot. Dion Jordan and Shariff Floyd just aren't that much better than the other options at their position. That said, I'm going with Cooper reluctantly because I know the Lions love him and if they're stuck here he might be their best option.
6. Cleveland Browns- Dion Jordan, OLB, Oregon- Another team that would love to move down and grab some extra picks, the Browns are stuck in the 6th spot due to the lack of an elite LT prospect being here for a potential trade up. I have them taking Jordan because rumor has it they were interested in trading up to 3 to get Jordan if necessary, but have now stopped pursuing the move up. I think they believe he'll be there at 6, another reason I don't have Jordan going to Detroit.
7. TRADE! New York Jets- Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia- I don't think it would take much for the Jets to move up from 9 to 7 and take Austin in front of their division rivals in Buffalo. The Bills love Austin and I think they smoke-screened him a little bit, but the Jets are desperate for offensive play-makers and would probably take the bait if the price was reasonable.
8. Buffalo Bills- Ryan Nassib, QB, Syracuse- Matt Barkley got smokescreened by the Bills yesterday, but it's believed that the guy they still want is Ryan Nassib. I linked the Bills to Nassib at 8 in my column on QBs on the move this offseason. I also had Buffalo trading back into Round 1 for him in my Mock Draft 3.2. I have him at 8 now because all signs point to him being the pick here if the Bills can't move down. A Bills beat writer picked him over Geno Smith in a beat writer mock in the LA Times, and Nassib is viewed as a better bad-weather QB than Smith. It doesn't make sense to see him here, but teams reach for QBs all the time and it's a perfect match coaching-wise.
9. TRADE! Arizona Cardinals- Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama- The Cardinals move back and land the player they probably would have preferred at #7 anyway. By moving to 9 they ensure the Titans can't steal Warmack from them.
10. Tennessee Titans- Shariff Floyd, DT, Florida- A gut feeling of mine says the Tians are going to wind up with Floyd or Lotulelei. In this mock, both of them fall as a result of teams in front of them targeting offensive players. I think Floyd is a better fit because the Titans have Jurrell Casey and Sammie Lee Hill at the NT spot and could use someone besides Mike Martin at the 3-technique. This is a classic case of the Titans picking the best player available on their board regardless of need.
11. San Diego Chargers- Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah- Lotulelei would fit in as a Nose Tackle or a DE in the Chargers 3-4. If the draft plays out this way, I think they'll love the value of Lotulelei in this spot and make the pick. If the Bolts make the move up to #3 overall that I outlined above, Lotulelei would be an excellent fit for the Raiders as well as a DT in their 4-3 defense.
12. Miami Dolphins- Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama- The Dolphins need a long term fix at the CB position and have been rumored to like Milliner, perhaps enough to even trade up for him. He'd be a nice value here at 12. If they trade up to 3, Milliner would fit with the Raiders too.
13. New York Jets- Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU- Rex Ryan loves Mingo, and I'm sure he'll be in play with their first pick. however, I think the Jets realize that Austin is valued higher than Mingo, and they'll take their chances on Mingo making it to 13. If not, Jarvis Jones and Tyler Eifert would still make sense.
14. TRADE! San Francisco 49ers- Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri- The Niners reportedly love Richardson and are willing to move up into the Top 15 to get him. He'd fit in as a 5-tech DE in their 3-4, and would be the heir to Justin Smith as well as complementing him on the line. They have so many picks that they almost have to move up, and if the Guards and Austin are all gone at this spot, I can see the Panthers moving down for a surplus of picks.
15. New Orleans Saints- Kenny Vaccaro, FS, Texas- Vaccaro is the top Safety in this draft and as a result is being a bit over-valued. The Saints need help all over their defense and adding the top safety in the draft is reportedly a very enticing option to them.
16. St. Louis Rams- DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson- The Ramss definitely need a receiver after losing Danny Amnedola and Brandon Gibson. They are said to love Hopkins and Hopkins is my favorite receiver in this draft. Alec Ogltree is another strong possibility here.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers- Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia- Jones worked out poorly, as expected, and some analysts are suggesting he might fall out of the first round. I think that’s heinous. How can the most disruptive defensive player in college football from a year ago not go in the first round?! The Steelers are smart, they’ll value Jones’ tape over his workout numbers, and they’ll get a solid pass rusher to replace James Harrison.
18. Dallas Cowboys- D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama- The Cowboys would love to add Fluker as their new Right Tackle, allowing them to slide the struggling Doug Free inside to Guard. It would be even sweeter to do it one pick before the rival Giants could get their hands on Fluker.
19. New York Giants- Tank Carradine, DE, Florida St.- The Giants need a pass rusher with Osi Umenyiora now in Atlanta. Carradine is rising up draft boards despite a torn ACL and is now projected to be a favorite to go 19th overall.
20. Chicago Bears- Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington- The Bears reportedly love Manti Te'o, which I think is a smokescreen to get the Vikings to move up. That's something to watch. I've also heard Desmond Trufant is a favorite to go to the Bears and develop behind the aging corners they have in place.
21. Cincinnati Bengals- Alec Ogletree, ILB, Georgia- The Bengals have been linked to everyone from Eddie Lacy to D.J. Hayden to Eric Reid. Hayden doesn't make a lot of sense to me when they drafted Dre Kirkpatrick 17th overall last year. the other two would be big reaches here. I think they'll be surprised to have Ogletree available and scoop him up. He can play anywhere in their 4-3 and his off the field issues won't deter Cincinnati.
22. St. Louis Rams (from WAS)- Eric Reid, FS, LSU- I'm not sure where the Eric Reid love is coming from, but reportedly the Rams like him at 22 if they can't move down. Ogletree isn't here and they already have their receiver, so if they're stuck I could see them reach for Reid.
23. Minnesota Vikings- Manti Te'o, ILB, Notre Dame- The Vikings love Manti Te'o. And they're real people (bah-boom-psh). Too soon? Anyway, Leslie Frazier wants a Middle Linebacker and Chris Speilman ate dinner with Te'o before his pro day. The love affair is apparently alive and still going strong.
24. Indianapolis Colts- D.J. Hayden, CB, Houston- D.J. Hayden is one of the feel good stories of the draft. There's an obvious Chuck Pagano link there, and Hayden also has the style of play Pagano likes in his corners and fills a major need.
25. TRADE! Carolina Panthers- Sylvester Williams, DT, UNC-- The Vikings are trying to move down from this slot and the Panthers have some ammo to move up from 31 and grab their DT. I'm assuming they'd also get the 34th pick from San Fran in the move down from 14, so I'd expect them to go after their WR, CB and/or S needs with their picks at 34 and 44.
26. Green Bay Packers- Margus Hunt, DE, SMU- Hunt is a physical freak and a steal at this point in the first round. He would play the 5-technique in Dom Campers’ 3-4, although I’d like to see him used outside as a pass rusher wherever he lands.
27. Houston Texans- Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee- The Texans definitely need a #2 receiver after cutting Kevin Walter. Patterson is falling because of intangible concerns and his lack of polish as a WR, but he'd have a hell of a mentor in place in Andre Johnson.
28. Denver Broncos- Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida St.- Werner is a prototype Left End who would be a colossal steal at this juncture. He is a terrific pass rusher and stops the run well. The Broncos need to replace Elvis Dumervil and Werner would be a colossal steal at this juncture.
29. TRADE! Jacksonville Jaguars- Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia- The Patriots only have 5 picks and will look to add a mid-rounder while sliding back to the Jaguars' second round slot at 33, the first pick on day 2. The Jags could be coaxed into moving up because they seem to like Geno (just not at #2) and they might be afraid someone else (Philly) will move up and take him before the 33rd pick. For the record, I think Geno is a steal outside of the Top 10 picks.
30. Atlanta Falcons- Jamar Taylor, CB, Boise St.- Taylor is a versatile corner that has seen his stock rise to the late first round in the past week. The Broncos and Patriots are also very high on him according to reports. The Falcons secondary is weak with Dunta Robinson and Brent Grimes leaving only Asante Samuel as an established corner.
31. TRADE! Minnesota Vikings- Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee- Hunter is a tantilizing prospect as a depp threat and could help take the top off the defense for Adrian Peterson. Greg Jennings would also serve as a great mentor to Hunter.
32. Baltimore Ravens- Jonathan Cyprien, SS, Florida International- The other Safety meriting late first round discussion, Cyprien would fit in next to Michael Huff as the Ravens remake their Safeties (and their whole D) from a year ago.
And for the record, I think the Patriots take Matt Elam with the first pick in Round 2.
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